GT247.com Trading Blog

Posts by Mark Ingham

BHP Billiton, "Buy-back complete and special dividend announced", 19 December 2018, MN Ingham

19 December 2018 /

Mining BHP Billiton “Buy-back complete and special dividend announced” Share price: AUD33.49 ASX, GBP16.32 LSE, ZAR298.75 JSE Net shares in ...

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BHP Billiton, "Maintaining discipline", 11 December 2018, MN Ingham

12 December 2018 /

Mining BHP Billiton “Maintaining discipline” Share price: AUD31.72 ASX, GBP15.62 LSE, ZAR281.70 JSE Net shares in issue: 2.11 billion LSE ...

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Sasol, "Pricing for lower Brent", MN Ingham, 6 December 2018

6 December 2018 /

Sasol “Pricing for lower Brent” Share price: R420 Net shares in issue: 624.5 million Market cap: R262.2 billion F2019 PE (at $70/bbl and ...

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Sibanye: AMCU strikes, MN Ingham, 21 November 2018

22 November 2018 /

Sibanye AMCU strikes Share price: R9.42 Net shares in issue:2,26 billion Market cap: R21.2 billion On a blended DCF and EV basis I value at ...

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FirstRand: "Perfection pricing", MN Ingham, 14 November 2018

15 November 2018 /

I have consistently maintained FirstRand as preferred exposure in this sector and that the bank warrants a premium in the banking sector. ...

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BHP Billiton, "Forward earnings materially higher at current spot commodity prices", 5 November 2018, MN Ingham

5 November 2018 /

In trading strategies, it is important to factor in that future earnings could be materially higher than is being assumed by sell-side ...

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Imperial: AGM update, MN Ingham, 30 October 2018

1 November 2018 /

Industrial Transportation Imperial AGM update Share price:R160 Net shares in issue: 200 million Market cap: R32,0 billion Fair value: up to ...

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BHP Billiton, “US disposals on track”, 24 October 2018, MN Ingham

25 October 2018 /

Other than FX changes affecting the LSE and JSE share prices, BHP Billiton has remained fairly firm on the Australia Stock Exchange. In ...

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Spot EPS eases off - Mark Ingham 15 October 2018

15 October 2018 /

Sasol “Spot EPS eases off” Share price: R524 Net shares in issue: 624.5 million Market cap: R327.2 billion F2019 PE (at $70/bbl and ...

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Tencent dog still wagging the Naspers tail - Mark Ingham 09 October 2018

9 October 2018 /

Cable and Satellite Media Naspers/Tencent “Tencent dog still wagging the Naspers tail” NPN share price ZAR: R2,870 NPN net shares in issue: ...

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Imperial: "Value ahead of Motus unbundling", MN Ingham, 3 October 2018

4 October 2018 /

Industrial Transportation “Value ahead of Motus unbundling” Share price:R167.00 Net shares in issue: 200 million Market cap: R33,4 billion ...

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Merafe: "Ferrochrome remains buoyant", MN Ingham, 25 September 2018

26 September 2018 /

Mining Merafe “Ferrochrome remains buoyant” Share price:163 cents Net shares in issue: 2,51 billion Market cap: R4,1 billion Fair value:192 ...

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Naspers claws back some of the discount to Tencent, MN Ingham, 11 September 2018

11 September 2018 /

On a relative basis, Naspers has outperformed Tencent in the past few weeks. This relative outperformance of late could reverse in time so ...

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Sasol - Newsflash - Spot 2020 EPS edges closer to R100

4 September 2018 /

Sasol “Spot 2020 EPS edges closer to R100” Share price: R575 Net shares in issue: 612,2 million Market cap: R352 billion Fair value and ...

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BHP Billiton - Giving back cash

31 August 2018 /

BHP BILLITON Share price: AUD33,78 ASX, GBP16,69 LSE, ZAR319,80 JSE Net shares in issue: 2,11 billion LSE and JSE Net shares in issue: 3,21 ...

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Bidcorp results - stock offering attractive comparable value

23 August 2018 /

Bidcorp presents comparatively good value relative to international peers. At R290, the stock trades on a forward PE of 20x and EV/EBITDA ...

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Naspers, Overreaction to Tencent Q2, MN Ingham, 16 August 2018

16 August 2018 /

The Naspers reaction yesterday to the Tencent Q2 and six month result was overdone. Naspers was down 8% to R3,060 per share. The result was ...

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Brait - Mind the gap

7 August 2018 /

I continue to recommend avoiding Brait. The latest results from troubled New Look don’t hold out much hope that we’ll see recovery in that ...

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Sasol Fundamental Analysis- Pick a number

2 August 2018 /

Further to my trading statement analysis dated 20 July, as each day that goes by with Brent crude oil at above $70/bbl so the EPS effect ...

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Glencore Fundamental Analysis- Q2 production has no surprises but legal issues dampen investment case

1 August 2018 /

Glencore Q2 production had no surprises and annual guidance has been kept, with the exception of lead and coal that are revised slightly. ...

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Kumba Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis- Check the change in divided policy.

24 July 2018 /

Mining - Kumba Iron Ore

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AngloGold Ashanti Fundamental Analysis - Barrick veteran appointed new CEO

24 July 2018 /

AngloGold Ashanti

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Sasol Fundamental Analysis - Trading statement analysis

20 July 2018 /

Sasol Share price: R500 Net shares in issue: 610,7 million Market cap: R305,5 billion Forward PE F2018: 12,1x Forward dividend yield: 2,6% ...

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Sibanye Fundamental Analysis - Wheaton streams in cash

18 July 2018 /

Sibanye “Wheaton streams in cash” Share price: R7,38 Net shares in issue:2,2 billion Market cap: R16,0 billion On a blended DCF and EV ...

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Fundamental Analysis BHP Billiton - Iron ore ends the year positively

13 July 2018 /

BHP BILLITON Sector: Mining Share price: AUD33,33 ASX, GBP16,42 LSE, ZAR287,87 JSE Net shares in issue: 2,11 billion LSE and JSE Net shares ...

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Steinhoff - Option pricing

11 July 2018 /

Steinhoff - “Option pricing” Fundamentals by Mark Ingham In providing context, I think the result for the six months ended 31 March 2018 ...

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Glencore DOJ investigation perspective by Mark Ingham

3 July 2018 /

Just as Glencore thought it had put a few headaches behind it in DR Congo, the miner receives a subpoena from the US Department of Justice ...

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Sibanye, Legal shakedown looms by Mark Ingham

2 July 2018 /

Sibanye “Legal shakedown looms” Share price: R8,00 Net shares in issue:2,2 billion Market cap: R17,6 billion Blended DCF and EV basis I ...

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Kumba Iron Ore, trading statement context

26 June 2018 /

Kumba Iron Ore, trading statement context First half earnings will be a lot lower than the first half of F2017. Whilst KIO is guiding ...

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Anglo American in a good space with respect to the draft mining charter 18 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

18 June 2018 /

Anglo American “Anglo American in a good space with respect to the draft mining charter” Sector: Mining Share price: £17,10 LSE, R305,00 ...

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Grindrod Shipping listing on NASDAQ 13 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

13 June 2018 /

Grindrod With respect to the impending Primary Listing of Grindrod Shipping on the NASDAQ (18 June 2018) and Secondary Listing on the JSE ...

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Sibanye Gold Limited (trading as Sibanye-Stillwater) 07 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

8 June 2018 /

Sibanye has halved in price since the announcement on 14 December 2017 that Sibanye and Lonmin reached agreement on the terms of a ...

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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 06 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

7 June 2018 /

As part and parcel of the Moab Khotsong acquisitions, Harmony has successfully raised new capital via an initial share placement and a ...

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Sasol - Forward spot EPS surges, 05 June 2018

5 June 2018 /

Sasol | Fundamental and Technical Note “Forward spot EPS surges” Sector: Energy Share price: R479 Net shares in issue: 610,7 million Market ...

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MTN Iran update, MN Ingham, 31 May 2018

1 June 2018 /

MTN Iran update On MTN, US sanctions on Iran will prevent MTN from bringing back at least R1,5 billion per annum in cash to SA. I estimate ...

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STAR interim result assessment 29 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

29 May 2018 /

Catch a falling STAR? Underlying result is mixed and a touch weaker than may have been expected. Negative Steinhoff sentiment and the ...

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SARB rate decision market implications by Mark Ingham

25 May 2018 /

SARB rate decision probably net supportive of ZAR but rate cutting is unlikely for the near future as the SARB is reluctant to be ...

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Kumba Fundamental Update 22 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

22 May 2018 /

Kumba is maintaining its production target at 44 to 45 million for the year and is targeting margin expansion and life-of-mine extension.

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Q1 Tencent results due 16 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

11 May 2018 /

Tencent, now 31,2% owned by Naspers after selling 190 million shares or 2% of the 9,5 billion Tencent stock in issue, is reporting ...

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Sasol diesel pricing update by Mark Ingham

10 May 2018 /

Latest trends in diesel are positive for Sasol. Diesel pricing is reflecting growth in industrial production, with international distillate ...

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Old Mutual - Ready for London exit by Mark Ingham

17 April 2018 /

Old Mutual has not been a favoured choice for me in insurance, with Discovery my top pick, followed by Sanlam. Old Mutual’s Belville ...

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Capitec Rallying round - [JSE:CPI] by Mark Ingham

29 March 2018 /

In my recent strategy note on banks (see “Richer Ramaphosa Rating” dated 22 March) I assessed only the big four banks, excluding Capitec as ...

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Naspers valuation update on Tencent sell-down

22 March 2018 /

Naspers’s sale of Tencent shares in the amount of 190 million, which is 2% of the 9,5 billion in issue, will realise around $10 billion. ...

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Richer Ramaphosa Rating - Big 4 banks by Mark Ingham

22 March 2018 /

The big four banks, FirstRand, Standard Bank, Barclays Africa Group, and Nedbank, are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in long bond ...

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ANGLO-AMERICAN-GT247-FUNDAMENTAL-ANALYSIS

Strengthening fundamentals - ANGLO AMERICAN [JSE:AGL] by Mark Ingham

1 March 2018 /

Since my last note on Anglo American dated 16 February (see “South African political tailwind”) the company has reported a pleasing set of ...

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Undervalued offshore opportunity on rand strength - BIDCORP [JSE:BID] by Mark Ingham

27 February 2018 /

Bidcorp, the international foodservice specialist, reported good underlying constant currency results for the six months ended 31 December ...

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South African political tailwind - Anglo American by Mark Ingham

16 February 2018 /

A week is a long time in politics, a quote attributed to British Prime Minister Harold Wilson. In South Africa, the winds of political ...

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A hedged half - HARMONY GOLD [JSE:HAR] by M N Ingham

13 February 2018 /

Harmony produced a very solid set of interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2017. The result exceeded my earlier expectation ...

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Bid-divest- BIDVEST [JSE:BVT] by M N Ingham

8 February 2018 /

If you want an example on the JSE of the shift in political mood, Bidvest, among others, fits the bill. The stock price has been almost ...

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Holding the line- VODACOM [JSE:VOD] by M N Ingham

5 February 2018 /

Vodacom released a reasonable Q3 F2018 trading update but there is little fundamental reason to warrant a valuation upgrade. I tend to view ...

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Mispriced - MR PRICE [JSE:MRP] by M N Ingham

31 January 2018 /

Mr Price is a good apparel retailer that is mispriced. After climbing by 37% since the end of November and by over 60% in six months the ...

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Expensive, even at $74/ton spot iron ore - Kumba Iron Ore by M N Ingham

25 January 2018 /

Kumba is now significantly overvalued on a fundamental evaluation. Despite easing back to around R350 per share from highs above R400 a ...

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Mischievous rumblings or grains of truth? - by M N Ingham

22 January 2018 /

The now infamous Viceroy have a cloak-and-dagger modus operandi within a guise of anonymity that disregards common professional scruple. ...

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Earnings in Davy Jones' locker - [JSE:WHL] by M N Ingham

15 January 2018 /

I’ve had a Sell recommendation on Woolworths for some time. In fact, three years back I advised that “Woolies has its hands full with its ...

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Trump's gift to Sasol - [JSE:SOL] by M N Ingham

12 January 2018 /

In December, US President Donald Trump signed into law H.R. 1, originally known as the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” There are major changes to ...

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“Politics-proofing your portfolio” M N Ingham

13 December 2017 /

The 54th ANC national conference runs from the 16th to the 20th of December. A new ANC president is to be elected. The difference between ...

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“Looking at Liquidity” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

7 December 2017 /

The latest ad hoc announcement from Steinhoff has two components – one which begs more questions than it answers relating to the validity ...

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“Ruptured Reputation” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

6 December 2017 /

The damage Steinhoff faces, following acknowledgement by the Supervisory Board that there are in fact “accounting irregularitiesrequiring ...

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“Moab moolah” Harmony Gold - M N Ingham

4 December 2017 /

Harmony is getting a good deal for its purchase of three assets from AngloGold Ashanti, the most significant being Moab Khotsong mine in ...

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“No rating cliff edge but be cautious” - M N Ingham

28 November 2017 /

The ratings decisions by S&P and Moody’s tells us that which we already knew. S&P has been particularly forthright this past couple ...

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Naspers / Tencent - "Tencent Q3 result a knock-out" 20/11/2017

20 November 2017 /

Tencent, 33,3% owned by Naspers, continues to outperform market expectations and for the third quarter of F2017 increased non-GAAP earnings ...

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Richemont - "Glamorous goodies" 13/11/2017

13 November 2017 /

The kernel of the investment case for this maker of glamorous goodies is a robust business model with the flexibility to adapt, steady cash ...

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AVI - "Stepping Out" 06/11/2017

6 November 2017 /

I am on record as being cautious about exposure to consumer stocks. However, I have also maintained that one size doesn’t fit all, some ...

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Long4Life - "From a standing start to R5 billion" 30/10/2017

30 October 2017 /

The indefatigable Brian Joffe, who recently turned 70 years of age, has invested his considerable business acumen in a start-up called ...

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Mediclinic - "Spire offers opportunity" 23/10/2017

24 October 2017 /

Spire Healthcare Group PLC has swatted away a possible offer from Mediclinic to acquire the shares it does not already own. Spire is a ...

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Pick n Pay - "Chipper stuff" 18/10/2017

18 October 2017 /

On Tuesday, 17 October, grocer Pick n Pay reported interim results, which were presented to fund managers and analysts in Cape Town. The ...

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FirstRand - "Online in England" 16/10/2017

16 October 2017 /

A good fit?: It is not just Capitec that does things differently. There are plenty of overseas examples, one of which is Aldermore in ...

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Taste Holdings - "Vasbyt" 13/10/2017

13 October 2017 /

The question the investor wants to know is, do I head for the hills and cut my losses or do I vasbyt and wait for the strategy to unfold? ...

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Glencore - "A larger slice of Volcan" 09/10/2017

9 October 2017 /

“A larger slice of Volcan” Glencore Sector: Mining Share price: LSE 364 pence; JSE 6620 cents Net shares in issue: 14,4 billion LSE and JSE ...

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BizNews: Running rule over hot stock Glencore – has it risen too far?

5 October 2017 /

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[JSE:VOD] - Vodacom Fundamental Analysis 05/10/2017

5 October 2017 /

"Abuse or not?" [JSE:VOD] Vodacom Sector: Mobile Telecommunications Share price: R154,30 Net shares in issue: 1,7 billion Market cap: ...

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[JSE:PIK] - Pick n Pay Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2017

4 October 2017 /

"In shape for tougher times" [JSE:PIK] Pick n Pay Sector: Grocery Retail Share price: R56,17 Net shares in issue: 482,3 million Market cap: ...

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[JSE:SHP] - Shoprite Fundamental Analysis

28 September 2017 /

"Trolley for trolley it's worth paying more" [JSE:SHP] Shoprite

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Sasol, "BEE calm and remain invested" 21 September 2017 - MN Ingham

21 September 2017 /

Sasol [JSE:SOL], "BEE calm and remain invested" Energy: Sasol “BEE calm and remain invested” Share price: R372,00 Net shares in issue: ...

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Naspers hits another record discount to it's stake in Tencent

20 September 2017 /

The discount that Naspers is on relative to its share of Tencent is now 32%. To put that in perspective, the share price of Naspers would ...

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[JSE:DSY] "Growth Stock Rating"- Discovery

18 September 2017 /

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[JSE:APN] "Watch that forex"- Aspen

12 September 2017 /

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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 11 to 27 September 2017

8 September 2017 /

Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 11 to 27th September 2017 - Included in this roundup: 11 September - AVI 27 ...

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[JSE:SRR:STAR] "A PEP in its step"- Steinhoff Africa Retail Limited

5 September 2017 /

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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 6 to 12 September 2017

1 September 2017 /

Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 6 to 12th September 2017 - Included in this roundup: 06 September - Sanlam 07 ...

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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 28 to 30 August 2017

25 August 2017 /

Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 28 to 30th August 2017 - Included in this roundup: 28 August - Bidvest 30 ...

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"Yay or Nay"- Naspers AGM, Time to vote.- M N Ingham

24 August 2017 /

The 103rd annual general meeting of Naspers Limited will be held in Cape Town on Friday 25 August 2017 at 11H15. There will be a number of ...

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Upcoming Results Roundup 21 to 24 August 2017

18 August 2017 /

Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 21 to 24th August 2017 - Included in this roundup: 21 August - Sasol 22 ...

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Resources

Posts by Mark Ingham

BHP Billiton, "Buy-back complete and special dividend announced", 19 December 2018, MN Ingham

BHP Billiton, "Maintaining discipline", 11 December 2018, MN Ingham

Sasol, "Pricing for lower Brent", MN Ingham, 6 December 2018

Sibanye: AMCU strikes, MN Ingham, 21 November 2018

FirstRand: "Perfection pricing", MN Ingham, 14 November 2018

BHP Billiton, "Forward earnings materially higher at current spot commodity prices", 5 November 2018, MN Ingham

Imperial: AGM update, MN Ingham, 30 October 2018

BHP Billiton, “US disposals on track”, 24 October 2018, MN Ingham

Spot EPS eases off - Mark Ingham 15 October 2018

Tencent dog still wagging the Naspers tail - Mark Ingham 09 October 2018

Imperial: "Value ahead of Motus unbundling", MN Ingham, 3 October 2018

Merafe: "Ferrochrome remains buoyant", MN Ingham, 25 September 2018

Naspers claws back some of the discount to Tencent, MN Ingham, 11 September 2018

Sasol - Newsflash - Spot 2020 EPS edges closer to R100

BHP Billiton - Giving back cash

Bidcorp results - stock offering attractive comparable value

Naspers, Overreaction to Tencent Q2, MN Ingham, 16 August 2018

Brait - Mind the gap

Sasol Fundamental Analysis- Pick a number

Glencore Fundamental Analysis- Q2 production has no surprises but legal issues dampen investment case

Kumba Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis- Check the change in divided policy.

AngloGold Ashanti Fundamental Analysis - Barrick veteran appointed new CEO

Sasol Fundamental Analysis - Trading statement analysis

Sibanye Fundamental Analysis - Wheaton streams in cash

Fundamental Analysis BHP Billiton - Iron ore ends the year positively

Steinhoff - Option pricing

Glencore DOJ investigation perspective by Mark Ingham

Sibanye, Legal shakedown looms by Mark Ingham

Kumba Iron Ore, trading statement context

Anglo American in a good space with respect to the draft mining charter 18 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

Grindrod Shipping listing on NASDAQ 13 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

Sibanye Gold Limited (trading as Sibanye-Stillwater) 07 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 06 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

Sasol - Forward spot EPS surges, 05 June 2018

MTN Iran update, MN Ingham, 31 May 2018

STAR interim result assessment 29 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

SARB rate decision market implications by Mark Ingham

Kumba Fundamental Update 22 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

Q1 Tencent results due 16 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

Sasol diesel pricing update by Mark Ingham

Old Mutual - Ready for London exit by Mark Ingham

Capitec Rallying round - [JSE:CPI] by Mark Ingham

Naspers valuation update on Tencent sell-down

Richer Ramaphosa Rating - Big 4 banks by Mark Ingham

Strengthening fundamentals - ANGLO AMERICAN [JSE:AGL] by Mark Ingham

Undervalued offshore opportunity on rand strength - BIDCORP [JSE:BID] by Mark Ingham

South African political tailwind - Anglo American by Mark Ingham

A hedged half - HARMONY GOLD [JSE:HAR] by M N Ingham

Bid-divest- BIDVEST [JSE:BVT] by M N Ingham

Holding the line- VODACOM [JSE:VOD] by M N Ingham

Mispriced - MR PRICE [JSE:MRP] by M N Ingham

Expensive, even at $74/ton spot iron ore - Kumba Iron Ore by M N Ingham

Mischievous rumblings or grains of truth? - by M N Ingham

Earnings in Davy Jones' locker - [JSE:WHL] by M N Ingham

Trump's gift to Sasol - [JSE:SOL] by M N Ingham

“Politics-proofing your portfolio” M N Ingham

“Looking at Liquidity” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

“Ruptured Reputation” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

“Moab moolah” Harmony Gold - M N Ingham

“No rating cliff edge but be cautious” - M N Ingham

Naspers / Tencent - "Tencent Q3 result a knock-out" 20/11/2017

Richemont - "Glamorous goodies" 13/11/2017

AVI - "Stepping Out" 06/11/2017

Long4Life - "From a standing start to R5 billion" 30/10/2017

Mediclinic - "Spire offers opportunity" 23/10/2017

Pick n Pay - "Chipper stuff" 18/10/2017

FirstRand - "Online in England" 16/10/2017

Taste Holdings - "Vasbyt" 13/10/2017

Glencore - "A larger slice of Volcan" 09/10/2017

BizNews: Running rule over hot stock Glencore – has it risen too far?

[JSE:VOD] - Vodacom Fundamental Analysis 05/10/2017

[JSE:PIK] - Pick n Pay Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2017

[JSE:SHP] - Shoprite Fundamental Analysis

Sasol, "BEE calm and remain invested" 21 September 2017 - MN Ingham

Naspers hits another record discount to it's stake in Tencent

[JSE:DSY] "Growth Stock Rating"- Discovery

[JSE:APN] "Watch that forex"- Aspen

Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 11 to 27 September 2017

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