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Posts by Mark Ingham

BHP Billiton, "Buy-back complete and special dividend announced", 19 December 2018, MN Ingham

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Mining BHP Billiton   “Buy-back complete and special dividend announced”           Share price: AUD33.49 ASX, GBP16.32 LSE, ZAR298.75 JSE ...
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BHP Billiton, "Maintaining discipline", 11 December 2018, MN Ingham

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Mining BHP Billiton   “Maintaining discipline”           Share price: AUD31.72 ASX, GBP15.62 LSE, ZAR281.70 JSE Net shares in issue: 2.11 ...
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Sasol, "Pricing for lower Brent", MN Ingham, 6 December 2018

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Sasol                      “Pricing for lower Brent” Share price: R420  Net shares in issue: 624.5 million Market cap: R262.2 billion F2019 ...
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Sibanye: AMCU strikes, MN Ingham, 21 November 2018

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Sibanye AMCU strikes Share price: R9.42   Net shares in issue:2,26 billion Market cap: R21.2 billion   On a blended DCF and EV basis I ...
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FirstRand: "Perfection pricing", MN Ingham, 14 November 2018

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I have consistently maintained FirstRand as preferred exposure in this sector and that the bank warrants a premium in the banking sector. ...
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BHP Billiton, "Forward earnings materially higher at current spot commodity prices", 5 November 2018, MN Ingham

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In trading strategies, it is important to factor in that future earnings could be materially higher than is being assumed by sell-side ...
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Imperial: AGM update, MN Ingham, 30 October 2018

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Industrial Transportation          Imperial                      AGM update Share price:R160   Net shares in issue: 200 million Market cap: ...
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BHP Billiton, “US disposals on track”, 24 October 2018, MN Ingham

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Other than FX changes affecting the LSE and JSE share prices, BHP Billiton has remained fairly firm on the Australia Stock Exchange. In ...
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Spot EPS eases off - Mark Ingham 15 October 2018

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Sasol                      “Spot EPS eases off” Share price: R524  Net shares in issue: 624.5 million Market cap: R327.2 billion F2019 PE ...
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Tencent dog still wagging the Naspers tail - Mark Ingham 09 October 2018

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Cable and Satellite Media          Naspers/Tencent   “Tencent dog still wagging the Naspers tail” NPN share price ZAR: R2,870  NPN net ...
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Imperial: "Value ahead of Motus unbundling", MN Ingham, 3 October 2018

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Industrial Transportation             “Value ahead of Motus unbundling” Share price:R167.00 Net shares in issue: 200 million Market cap: ...
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Merafe: "Ferrochrome remains buoyant", MN Ingham, 25 September 2018

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Mining         Merafe                      “Ferrochrome remains buoyant” Share price:163 cents Net shares in issue: 2,51 billion Market ...
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Naspers claws back some of the discount to Tencent, MN Ingham, 11 September 2018

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On a relative basis, Naspers has outperformed Tencent in the past few weeks. This relative outperformance of late could reverse in time so ...
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Sasol - Newsflash - Spot 2020 EPS edges closer to R100

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Sasol                      “Spot 2020 EPS edges closer to R100” Share price: R575  Net shares in issue: 612,2 million Market cap: R352 ...
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BHP Billiton - Giving back cash

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BHP BILLITON Share price: AUD33,78 ASX, GBP16,69 LSE, ZAR319,80 JSE Net shares in issue: 2,11 billion LSE and JSE Net shares in issue: 3,21 ...
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Bidcorp results - stock offering attractive comparable value

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  Bidcorp presents comparatively good value relative to international peers. At R290, the stock trades on a forward PE of 20x and EV/EBITDA ...
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Naspers, Overreaction to Tencent Q2, MN Ingham, 16 August 2018

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The Naspers reaction yesterday to the Tencent Q2 and six month result was overdone. Naspers was down 8% to R3,060 per share.  The result ...
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Brait - Mind the gap

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I continue to recommend avoiding Brait. The latest results from troubled New Look don’t hold out much hope that we’ll see recovery in that ...
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Sasol Fundamental Analysis- Pick a number

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Further to my trading statement analysis dated 20 July, as each day that goes by with Brent crude oil at above $70/bbl so the EPS effect ...
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Glencore Fundamental Analysis- Q2 production has no surprises but legal issues dampen investment case

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Glencore Q2 production had no surprises and annual guidance has been kept, with the exception of lead and coal that are revised slightly. ...
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Kumba Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis- Check the change in divided policy.

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Mining - Kumba Iron Ore  
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AngloGold Ashanti Fundamental Analysis - Barrick veteran appointed new CEO

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AngloGold Ashanti  
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Sasol Fundamental Analysis - Trading statement analysis

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Sasol Share price: R500  Net shares in issue: 610,7 million Market cap: R305,5 billion Forward PE F2018: 12,1x Forward dividend yield: 2,6% ...
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Sibanye Fundamental Analysis - Wheaton streams in cash

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Sibanye “Wheaton streams in cash” Share price: R7,38   Net shares in issue:2,2 billion Market cap: R16,0 billion On a blended DCF and EV ...
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Fundamental Analysis BHP Billiton - Iron ore ends the year positively

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BHP BILLITON Sector: Mining Share price: AUD33,33 ASX, GBP16,42 LSE, ZAR287,87 JSE Net shares in issue: 2,11 billion LSE and JSE Net shares ...
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Steinhoff - Option pricing

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Steinhoff - “Option pricing” Fundamentals by Mark Ingham In providing context, I think the result for the six months ended 31 March 2018 ...
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Glencore DOJ investigation perspective by Mark Ingham

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Just as Glencore thought it had put a few headaches behind it in DR Congo, the miner receives a subpoena from the US Department of Justice ...
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Sibanye, Legal shakedown looms by Mark Ingham

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Sibanye “Legal shakedown looms” Share price: R8,00   Net shares in issue:2,2 billion Market cap: R17,6 billion Blended DCF and EV basis I ...
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Kumba Iron Ore, trading statement context

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Kumba Iron Ore, trading statement context First half earnings will be a lot lower than the first half of F2017. Whilst KIO is guiding ...
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Anglo American in a good space with respect to the draft mining charter 18 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Anglo American                         “Anglo American in a good space with respect to the draft mining charter” Sector: Mining Share ...
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Grindrod Shipping listing on NASDAQ 13 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Grindrod With respect to the impending Primary Listing of Grindrod Shipping on the NASDAQ (18 June 2018) and Secondary Listing on the JSE ...
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Sibanye Gold Limited (trading as Sibanye-Stillwater) 07 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Sibanye has halved in price since the announcement on 14 December 2017 that Sibanye and Lonmin reached agreement on the terms of a ...
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited 06 June 2018 by Mark Ingham

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As part and parcel of the Moab Khotsong acquisitions, Harmony has successfully raised new capital via an initial share placement and a ...
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Sasol - Forward spot EPS surges, 05 June 2018

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Sasol | Fundamental and Technical Note        “Forward spot EPS surges” Sector: Energy Share price: R479  Net shares in issue: 610,7 ...
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MTN Iran update, MN Ingham, 31 May 2018

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MTN Iran update On MTN, US sanctions on Iran will prevent MTN from bringing back at least R1,5 billion per annum in cash to SA. I estimate ...
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STAR interim result assessment 29 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Catch a falling STAR? Underlying result is mixed and a touch weaker than may have been expected. Negative Steinhoff sentiment and the ...
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SARB rate decision market implications by Mark Ingham

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SARB rate decision probably net supportive of ZAR but rate cutting is unlikely for the near future as the SARB is reluctant to be ...
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Kumba Fundamental Update 22 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Kumba is maintaining its production target at 44 to 45 million for the year and is targeting margin expansion and life-of-mine extension.
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Q1 Tencent results due 16 May 2018 by Mark Ingham

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Tencent, now 31,2% owned by Naspers after selling 190 million shares or 2% of the 9,5 billion Tencent stock in issue, is reporting ...
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Sasol diesel pricing update by Mark Ingham

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Latest trends in diesel are positive for Sasol. Diesel pricing is reflecting growth in industrial production, with international distillate ...
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Old Mutual - Ready for London exit by Mark Ingham

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Old Mutual has not been a favoured choice for me in insurance, with Discovery my top pick, followed by Sanlam. Old Mutual’s Belville ...
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Capitec Rallying round - [JSE:CPI] by Mark Ingham

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In my recent strategy note on banks (see “Richer Ramaphosa Rating” dated 22 March) I assessed only the big four banks, excluding Capitec as ...
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Naspers valuation update on Tencent sell-down

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Naspers’s sale of Tencent shares in the amount of 190 million, which is 2% of the 9,5 billion in issue, will realise around $10 billion. ...
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Richer Ramaphosa Rating - Big 4 banks by Mark Ingham 

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The big four banks, FirstRand, Standard Bank, Barclays Africa Group, and Nedbank, are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in long bond ...
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Progressive dividend hard to justify - MTN [JSE:MTN] by Mark Ingham

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What was noteworthy about the 2017 annual result was a return to a “progressive” dividend policy, the sort of policy that hit a buffer once ...
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Strengthening fundamentals - ANGLO AMERICAN [JSE:AGL] by Mark Ingham

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Since my last note on Anglo American dated 16 February (see “South African political tailwind”) the company has reported a pleasing set of ...
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Undervalued offshore opportunity on rand strength - BIDCORP [JSE:BID] by Mark Ingham

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Bidcorp, the international foodservice specialist, reported good underlying constant currency results for the six months ended 31 December ...
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South African political tailwind - Anglo American by Mark Ingham

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A week is a long time in politics, a quote attributed to British Prime Minister Harold Wilson. In South Africa, the winds of political ...
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A hedged half - HARMONY GOLD [JSE:HAR] by M N Ingham

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Harmony produced a very solid set of interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2017. The result exceeded my earlier expectation ...
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Bid-divest- BIDVEST [JSE:BVT] by M N Ingham

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If you want an example on the JSE of the shift in political mood, Bidvest, among others, fits the bill. The stock price has been almost ...
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Holding the line- VODACOM [JSE:VOD] by M N Ingham

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Vodacom released a reasonable Q3 F2018 trading update but there is little fundamental reason to warrant a valuation upgrade. I tend to view ...
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Mispriced - MR PRICE [JSE:MRP] by M N Ingham

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Mr Price is a good apparel retailer that is mispriced. After climbing by 37% since the end of November and by over 60% in six months the ...
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Expensive, even at $74/ton spot iron ore - Kumba Iron Ore by M N Ingham

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Kumba is now significantly overvalued on a fundamental evaluation. Despite easing back to around R350 per share from highs above R400 a ...
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Mischievous rumblings or grains of truth? - by M N Ingham

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The now infamous Viceroy have a cloak-and-dagger modus operandi within a guise of anonymity that disregards common professional scruple. ...
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Earnings in Davy Jones' locker - [JSE:WHL] by M N Ingham

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I’ve had a Sell recommendation on Woolworths for some time. In fact, three years back I advised that “Woolies has its hands full with its ...
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Trump's gift to Sasol - [JSE:SOL] by M N Ingham

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In December, US President Donald Trump signed into law H.R. 1, originally known as the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” There are major changes to ...
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Music to your ears - Naspers & Tencent by M N Ingham

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Tencent, 33,3% owned by Naspers, is not short on corporate activity or pipeline. Spotify, a leader in music streaming, and Tencent Music ...
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“Politics-proofing your portfolio” M N Ingham

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The 54th ANC national conference runs from the 16th to the 20th of December. A new ANC president is to be elected. The difference between ...
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“Looking at Liquidity” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

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The latest ad hoc announcement from Steinhoff has two components – one which begs more questions than it answers relating to the validity ...
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“Ruptured Reputation” Steinhoff [JSE:SNH] - M N Ingham

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The damage Steinhoff faces, following acknowledgement by the Supervisory Board that there are in fact “accounting irregularitiesrequiring ...
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“Moab moolah” Harmony Gold - M N Ingham

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Harmony is getting a good deal for its purchase of three assets from AngloGold Ashanti, the most significant being Moab Khotsong mine in ...
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“No rating cliff edge but be cautious” - M N Ingham

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The ratings decisions by S&P and Moody’s tells us that which we already knew. S&P has been particularly forthright this past couple of ...
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Naspers / Tencent - "Tencent Q3 result a knock-out" 20/11/2017

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Tencent, 33,3% owned by Naspers, continues to outperform market expectations and for the third quarter of F2017 increased non-GAAP earnings ...
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Richemont - "Glamorous goodies" 13/11/2017

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The kernel of the investment case for this maker of glamorous goodies is a robust business model with the flexibility to adapt, steady cash ...
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AVI - "Stepping Out" 06/11/2017

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I am on record as being cautious about exposure to consumer stocks. However, I have also maintained that one size doesn’t fit all, some ...
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Long4Life - "From a standing start to R5 billion" 30/10/2017

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The indefatigable Brian Joffe, who recently turned 70 years of age, has invested his considerable business acumen in a start-up called ...
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Mediclinic - "Spire offers opportunity" 23/10/2017

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Spire Healthcare Group PLC has swatted away a possible offer from Mediclinic to acquire the shares it does not already own. Spire is a ...
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Pick n Pay - "Chipper stuff" 18/10/2017

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On Tuesday, 17 October, grocer Pick n Pay reported interim results, which were presented to fund managers and analysts in Cape Town. The ...
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FirstRand - "Online in England" 16/10/2017

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A good fit?: It is not just Capitec that does things differently. There are plenty of overseas examples, one of which is Aldermore in ...
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Taste Holdings - "Vasbyt" 13/10/2017

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The question the investor wants to know is, do I head for the hills and cut my losses or do I vasbyt and wait for the strategy to unfold? ...
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Glencore - "A larger slice of Volcan" 09/10/2017

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“A larger slice of Volcan” Glencore Sector: Mining Share price: LSE 364 pence; JSE 6620 cents Net shares in issue: 14,4 billion LSE and JSE ...
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BizNews: Running rule over hot stock Glencore – has it risen too far?

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[JSE:VOD] - Vodacom Fundamental Analysis 05/10/2017

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"Abuse or not?" [JSE:VOD] Vodacom Sector: Mobile Telecommunications Share price: R154,30  Net shares in issue: 1,7 billion Market cap: ...
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[JSE:PIK] - Pick n Pay Fundamental Analysis 04/10/2017

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"In shape for tougher times" [JSE:PIK] Pick n Pay Sector: Grocery Retail Share price: R56,17  Net shares in issue: 482,3 million Market ...
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[JSE:SHP] - Shoprite Fundamental Analysis

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"Trolley for trolley it's worth paying more" [JSE:SHP] Shoprite
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Sasol, "BEE calm and remain invested" 21 September 2017 - MN Ingham

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Sasol [JSE:SOL], "BEE calm and remain invested"  Energy: Sasol                       “BEE calm and remain invested” Share price: R372,00  ...
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Naspers hits another record discount to it's stake in Tencent

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The discount that Naspers is on relative to its share of Tencent is now 32%. To put that in perspective, the share price of Naspers would ...
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[JSE:DSY] "Growth Stock Rating"- Discovery

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[JSE:APN] "Watch that forex"- Aspen

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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 11 to 27 September 2017

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Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 11 to 27th September 2017 -   Included in this roundup: 11 September - AVI 27 ...
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[JSE:SRR:STAR] "A PEP in its step"- Steinhoff Africa Retail Limited

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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 6 to 12 September 2017

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Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 6 to 12th September 2017 -   Included in this roundup: 06 September - Sanlam ...
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Upcoming JSE Results Roundup 28 to 30 August 2017

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Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 28 to 30th August 2017 -   Included in this roundup: 28 August - Bidvest 30 ...
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"Yay or Nay"- Naspers AGM, Time to vote.- M N Ingham

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The 103rd annual general meeting of Naspers Limited will be held in Cape Town on Friday 25 August 2017 at 11H15. There will be a number of ...
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Upcoming Results Roundup 21 to 24 August 2017

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Mark Ingham's insights into JSE listed results being released 21 to 24th August 2017 -   Included in this roundup: 21 August - Sasol 22 ...
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NEWSFLASH: Tencent Robust Q2 result

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[JSE:MRF] Merafe - A little less bling but still some shine

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[JSE:GLN] Glencore - Richer Dividend In Store

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Banks, "SARB conundrum", MN Ingham 8 Aug '17

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Sasol - Fundamental Analysis - M N Ingham 02 August 2017

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Bidvest - Fundamental Analysis - M N Ingham 01 August 2017

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Naspers "A hero delivery" Updated, MN Ingham 31 July 2017

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BHP Billiton - Fundamental Analysis - M N Ingham 24 July 2017

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Unpacking the National Health Insurance Program

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Mark Ingham's Fundamental analysis National Health Insurance Program "Pie in the Sky" Published on Biznews - Read Full Article... 
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Massmart - Fundamental Analysis - M N Ingham

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AngloGold Ashanti - Fundamental Analysis - M N Ingham

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Naspers "A hero delivery", MN Ingham 13 July 2017

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Attacq, "New RE(AL)IT(Y)", MN Ingham 7 July 2017

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Woolies "Knotted" - Fundamental Analysis

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Naspers Newsflash

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Sasol - Fundamental Analysis

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Telkom SA SOC Ltd - Fundamental Analysis

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Sun International - Fundamental Analysis

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Naspers discount widens

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Brait "Down to earth with a bump"

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Steinhoff - "New-money opportunity on recent price weakness"

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Palladium underpin to Stillwater - Ingham's Incisive Insights

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Barclays Africa Group "Bye bye" - Ingham's Incisive Insights

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What's Cooking - Purple Group Limited - Focus on Tomorrow

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