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Your trading week summarised - 4th February 2019

Musa Makoni


Markets have largely been tentative as investors have been trying to digest major US corporate earnings and the US-China trade negotiations. The US Fed’s press conference post its rate decision on Thursday brought back the bulls into play as the Fed chair struck a more dovish tone compared to its stance in 2018. Some market participants are now pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut instead of one or two more hikes as the US Fed had guided in 2019. Locally, the rand jolted higher after the FOMC statement as US dollar weakness saw gains across most emerging market currencies as well as major currencies. On the JSE, sentiment remains fragile as the effect of an increasingly constrained South African consumer surfaces in some corporate earnings results. There might be signs of low volatility and trading volumes in this week’s trading as Chinese markets will be closed for their New Year from the 4th of February until the 10th of February. Below are some of the events that investors need to look out for in this week’s trading...


  • Monday will be subdued on the economic data front. At 11.30am we are expecting Construction PMI data from the United Kingdom, while at midday we expect CPI and PPI data from Italy. At 5pm we anticipate the USA to release its Factory Orders data. Locally, Lighthouse Capital formerly Greenbay Properties, is expected to release its quarterly earnings results.


  • To kick off Tuesday we are expecting Retail Sales and Trade Balance data from Australia at 2.30am, and at 5am the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce its interest rate decision. At 11.30am we are expecting Services PMI data from the United Kingdom and we also expect the same data from most of the countries in the Eurozone, as well as the USA. At 5pm, the USA is also expected to release its ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers. Locally, we are only expecting the Standard Bank PMI reading at 9.15am.


  • On Wednesday, German Factory Orders data will be on focus at 9am and later on at 3.30pm we are anticipating preliminary Non-Farm Productivity, Unit Labour Costs and Trade Balance data out of the USA. At 5.30pm we expect the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers out of the USA. Locally, we are only expecting the SACCI Business Confidence number reading.


  • Sappi and ArcelorMittal South Africa are expected to release their earnings results on Thursday on the JSE. On the international front, we are expecting Industrial Production data out of Germany at 9am followed by French Trade Balance numbers at 9.45am. At 2pm, attention will shift to the Bank of England for bank’s interest rate decision and inflation report, which will be followed by a press conference. From the USA we can expect the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers at 3.30pm.


  • A rather quiet day is on the cards for Friday. Japan is expected to release its Household Spending, Bank Lending, Current Account and Average Cash Earnings data at 1.30am. At 9am we are expecting German Trade Balance data followed by Industrial Production numbers out of France and Italy at 9.45am and 11am respectively. On the JSE, we are expecting earnings results for Sasol and Net 1 UEPS.


We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102 and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

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