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Your Monday Wake Up Call 18 June 2018

Musa Makoni

What to look forward to this trading week

Central bank rate decisions grabbed the headlines last week and particularly the US Fed which increased rates by 25 basis points. The list of Chinese goods and services on which $50 billion worth of tariffs are going to be imposed was released and this has sent jitters into the global markets. The USA’s trade partners have indicated that they are going to retaliate to these US tariffs which could result in a protracted trade war which will be adverse for emerging markets such as South Africa. Locally, economic data has been weak as the economy continues to show signs of struggle. Below I have highlighted key data and events that traders need to look out for in this week’s trading.


  • Monday will be subdued in terms of economic data. Earlier on, Trade Balance numbers from Japan disappointed as they showed a trade deficit instead of the forecasted trade surplus. Locally, PPC Limited is expected to release its full-year earnings results.


  • On Tuesday, we are expecting the Eurozone to release Current Account and Construction Output data. The USA is expected to release Building Permits and Housing Starts numbers while in terms of earnings releases, we are expecting results from Oracle and FedEx.


  • The European Central Bankers Forum is expected to take place on Wednesday and governors from the Fed, ECB, Japan and Australia are expected to give speeches. The USA is expected to release its Current Account and Existing Home Sales numbers, as well as the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers. Locally, major focus will be on the CPI data for May which is expected to come in at 4.6% YoY. This should play a hand ahead of the SARB’s next MPC meeting.


  • New Zealand is expected to release its GDP numbers early on Thursday morning and later that morning focus will be on Switzerland for the central bank’s interest rate decision. At 2pm, the Bank of England is expected to announce its rate decision and estimates suggest that they will keep rates unchanged. The USA is expected to release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Locally, we are expecting Current Account data and there will also be a SAFEX Futures close out from 12pm.


  • On Friday we are expecting Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers from the major global financial centres. Canada is expected to release its CPI and Retail Sales numbers at 3.30pm that afternoon. However most of the focus locally will be on the full-year earnings results which are expected from Naspers. Due to the stocks big weighting on the JSE All-Share Index, this is a significant set of numbers to look out for.


OPEC and its affiliate members are expected to meet on Thursday. This will be significant for oil prices which posted a weekly drop last week and look set for more weakness given the current trend.


We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.


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