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Your Monday Wake Up Call 10 September 2018

Musa Makoni

Last week ended with the release of US jobs data which came in better than anticipated for the month of August. US inflation is also in an uptick which will incentivise the US Fed to increase interest rates two more times this year as highlighted in the last FOMC meeting minutes. Locally, several companies have released their earnings results which have been relatively good, but this has been overshadowed by the bearish sentiment surrounding emerging markets and the fluctuations in the rand. Trade concerns remain the focus as Donald Trump has hinted that he is targeting imposing higher tariffs on every Chinese import into the USA. Overall the market outlook seems bearish and traders need to exercise caution and perhaps apply more stringent risk management procedures. I have highlighted a few key events below for traders to look out for in this week’s trading.


  • Monday got off to a busy start in Asia with the release of GDP and Current Account data from Japan, as well as PPI and CPI numbers from China. At 10.30am attention will shift to the United Kingdom for the release of GDP, Manufacturing Production, Goods Trade Balance and Industrial Production data. Locally, we are expecting African Oxygen and AVI Limited to release their earnings results. 
  • On Tuesday morning Japan is expected to release its Tertiary Industry Activity and Machine Tool Orders data. The United Kingdom is expected to release Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate data at 10.30am. At 4pm, the USA is expected to release its Wholesale Inventories data. Locally, Ascendis Health and Attacq are expected to release their earnings results. In terms of economic data we are expecting Manufacturing Production numbers for the month of July.
  • Italy is expected to release its Industrial Production and Unemployment Rate data at 10am on Wednesday. We also expect Industrial Production numbers for the Eurozone at 11am. In the USA, focus will be PPI data which is expected to be released at 2.30pm and later at 4.30pm we are expecting the release of the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers. Statistics SA is expected to release Retail Sales data for the month of July and the consensus is that YoY they will increase to 1.6% from a prior recording of 0.7%. We are also expecting the SACCI Business Confidence indicator data for August which is expected to a show significant drop from the prior recorded number. In terms of earnings we are expecting Clover Industries to release its earnings results.
  • Thursday will be a busy day in terms of economic data starting off with PPI and Machinery Orders numbers out of Japan. From Australia, we are expecting Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data. At 8am, Germany is expected to release its CPI while France is expected to release the same data at 8.45am. At 1pm, the Bank of England is expected to announce its interest rate decision, and the current forecast is that the bank will leave rates unchanged. The press conference is expected to start at that same time. The ECB is also expected to leave rates unchanged when it announces its rate decision at 1.45pm which will be followed by a press conference at 2.30pm. From the USA, major focus will be on CPI m/m which is slated for release at 2.30pm. The forecast is that inflation will increase to 0.3% MoM from a prior recording of 0.2%. At that same time, we are expecting the weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers. Locally, we are expecting earnings for Aspen, African Rainbow Capital Investments and Impala Platinum. In terms of economic data, we are expecting the Mining Production data at 11.30am. 
  • China will be in the spotlight on Friday morning as we expect the release of Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate data. Japan is expected to release its Revised Industrial Production data at 6.30am, and from the Eurozone we are expecting Trade Balance numbers at 11am. At 2.30pm the USA is expected to release its Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation Rate data which will conclude this week’s trading.

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

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