USD/ZAR – Daily
Recommendation: LOOK TO GO LONG RANDS AGAIN
Current Trend: Short- and med-term rand strength. Long-term sideways to strength.
Strategy: Go long rands again on the next reversal day/candle down.
Chart Setup: Updating last weeks analysis, the rand reversed down (rallied) again from line 2 resistance and reached and exceeded its original 11.70 target, as well as its 11.60 target. I'm looking for another leg of rand strength after the pullback of recent days, and then a larger rand correction (as drawn in).
- Short-term Stochastic is oversold for the dollar and giving a positive divergence, so expect a good correction fairly soon.
Strategy Details: Go long the rand on the next reversal day/candle down. (It might occur from line 4 at 11.79).
Target: Lock in half profits at 11.51, and the rest at 11.48-11.45.
- Note, I'm looking for a sizeable rally in the US dollar index to start very soon, that will put pressure on the rand despite the improved political outlook locally. The rand could then weaken to the 12.80/13.00 level, but temporarily. Bigger picture I see no reason the rand won’t get back to 10.50/10.00.
Stop-loss: A close above line 2 (11.90) on new short-term longs. Once it trades below 11.60 move stop to entry price (breakeven); and from to 11.51 tighten the stop again, to a prior one-day high.
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