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U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls [NFP] release Friday 9 March 2018

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Barry Dumas
Non-Farm-Payrolls-February-2018-3

US Non-Farm Payroll Release

Yes, folks it is that time again for the monthly US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers to be released. Usually the number is released the first Friday of every new month but this time around it is on the second Friday the 9th of March around 15:30 local time.

I usually refer to this day as the super bowl of trading days as the opportunities are in abundance as volatility is injected across all markets.

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What to look out for before the NFP numbers are released:

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is a very good predictor of the NFP report as the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment. The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will be released on Wednesday the 7th of March.

What is expected this time around?

Jobs number:

There is a lower number of new jobs expected at 190K Non-Farm jobs from the previous 200K number last month

Take note a higher than expected jobs number should be taken as bullish for the Dollar (USD), while a lower than expected jobs number should be taken as bearish for the Dollar (USD)

Hourly earnings:

The Average hourly earnings (M/M) are expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% - This is a key figure to watch and if this number disappoints, it will signal a weak wage inflation outlook in the US.

Take note a higher than expected earnings number should be taken as bullish for the Dollar (USD), while a lower than expected earnings number should be taken as bearish for the Dollar (USD).

What to trade internationally?

  1. Major indices to look at will be the S&P 500, Wall Street 30 and the VIX
  2. Major Forex pairs to look at will be EUR/USD, GBP/USD and JPY/USD
  3. Commodity to look at will be Gold.

I will be releasing some trade notes closer to the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release date and will be looking at some high probability trade set ups.

When and what time is the US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) announced in South Africa?

9 March 2018 at 3.30pm

May your trading day be profitable!

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