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U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls [NFP] release Friday 6th July 2018

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Barry Dumas
Non-Farm-Payrolls

US Non-Farm Payroll Release

It is time again for the monthly US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers to be released. The US Non-Farm Payroll number for the month of June will be released locally on Friday the 6th of July at 14:30.

Here is what happened previously and what you can expect to happen in the markets on the release of these results.

Technical Trade Note Available on Gold (XAU):

We have seen a selloff in Gold (XAU) over the month of June and it looks like the buyers are returning to the commodities space.

Take note: With it being Jobs Friday and all, I will be looking to buy Gold (XAU) if we see a close above the $ 1264/ ounce price level.

Outlook: With international tensions on the increase we might see a flight to safety from investors and the value of Gold should increase.

Trade: Gold (XAU)

  • Entry (Buy): $ 1264/ ounce
  • Stop loss: $ 1247/ ounce
  • Target price: $ 1285/ ounce

WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO READ THE FULL TRADE NOTE HERE

What happened previously?

The Non-Farm Payrolls number came out much higher than expected at 223K Non-Farm jobs over the 188K Non-Farm jobs expected.

The Average hourly earnings (M/M) remained unchanged at 0.3% and the U.S Unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% from the 3.9% market forecast.

Looking back at the charts internationally:

Wall Street 30

  • The Index started to gain momentum after we saw a better than expected Non-Farm Payroll number.

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 23.28.43

Source - Bloomberg

  Trade Now!

EUR/USD

  • We saw Dollar (USD) strength coming through on the EUR/USD currency pair after a better than expected Non-Farm Payroll number.

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 23.30.24

 Source - Bloomberg

 Trade Now!

Looking back at the charts locally:

USD/ZAR

  • We also saw Dollar (USD) strength coming through on the USD/ZAR currency pair after a better than expected Non-Farm Payroll number.

Screen Shot 2018-07-03 at 23.31.40

Source - Bloomberg

 Trade Now!

What to look out for before NFP numbers are released:

The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is a very good predictor of the NFP report as the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment. The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will be released on Thursday the 5th of July around 14:15 South African time and the expected change in private employment is an increase of 190K jobs. 

What is forecast this time?

Jobs number:

The number of new Non-Farm jobs are expected to decrease from 223K Non-Farm jobs to 200K Non-Farm Jobs.

Take note a higher than expected jobs number should be taken as bullish for the Dollar (USD), while a lower than expected jobs number should be taken as bearish for the Dollar (USD).

Hourly earnings:

The Average hourly earnings (M/M) number is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% from the previous month - This is a key figure to watch and if this number disappoints, it will signal a weak wage inflation outlook in the US.

Take note a higher than expected earnings number should be taken as bullish for the Dollar (USD), while a lower than expected earnings number should be taken as bearish for the Dollar (USD).

U.S. Unemployment Rate

The U.S Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The U.S. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%.

Take note a higher than expected rate should be taken as bearish for the Dollar (USD), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as bullish for the Dollar (USD).

What to trade internationally:

Major indices to look at will be the S&P 500, Wall Street 30 and the VIX

Major Forex pairs to look at will be EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Commodity to look at will be Gold.

Trade Now!

What to trade locally:

Index to look at will be the ALSI

Forex pair to look at will be the USD/ZAR

Rand Hedges (BTI, CFR) and Rand Sensitives (Banks and Insurers)

Trade Now!

Education - What is the Non-Farm Payroll?

Non-Farm Payrolls are usually reported on the first Friday of the month, whereby the number of additional jobs added from the previous month is released. 

The Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) is treated as an economic indicator for people employed during the previous month. In the United States consumer spending accounts for the majority of the economic activity and the Non-Farm Payrolls report represents 80% of the U.S workforce.

The reason why farmers are excluded from employment figures is due to the seasonality in farm jobs. 

How to trade the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report: The Strategies

There are a number of ways to trade the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and here are a few strategies traders look at:

  • The Early birds: traders who will take an early position before the jobs number is released in anticipation that the directional movement the event will cause will be in their favour.
  • The Scalpers: as the data is released these traders will scalp and try and capitalize on the volatility that is created by the data, positively or negatively.
  • The calm and calculated: as the market digests the results of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and after the volatility swings have occurred these traders will take a position on the markets momentum.

When and what time is the US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) announced in South Africa?

6th July 2018 at 2.30pm

May your trading day be profitable!

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