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The Safe Havens Commodity Report – 25 September 2019

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Barry Dumas
Commodity-Research-notes-trading (003)

Commodities are finding new buyers as global economic uncertainty picks up momentum along with the latest move to impeach President Trump, meaning market uncertainty will continue. Precious metals might continue to be the firm favourite as the Global economy steers closer to a possible recession.

Precious metals

Precious metals like Gold and Silver are leading the pack as investors get out of the equity market and into safe havens. Gold might continue to rally if recession fears pick-up, and the U.S Dollar continues to weaken with Silver following suite.

Gold

We have seen the yellow metal regain some of its lusters throughout 2019 as global economic uncertainty reigns. The recent move by the U.S Congress to impeach Trump, which might give Gold the push to the 1558 resistance level.

Technical analysis on Gold (XAUUSD)

  • Close above the 1525 resistance; now, possible support might see the price action move higher to the 1558 resistance level and negate a potential H&S pattern.  
  • If the price action does not hold the 1525 support, we might see the possible completion of a right shoulder back to the 1484 neckline.
  • The 50-day SMA will be watched closely for added support if prices move lower.

XAU Curncy GT247 BloombergSource – Bloomberg

Silver

Silver has become the commodity to watch, so if you missed the Goldrush of 2019, then Silver should be on your trade to-do list. Silver has been lagging Gold throughout the year, but that might change. Looking at correlations like the Gold to Silver ratio, it might suggest that Silver could outperform Gold this week.

Technical analysis on Silver (XAGUSD)

  • If Silver closes above the $18.79/ ounce resistance level, we might see the $20.00/ ounce price be on the table.
  • The $17.37/ ounce support level will also be watched closely along with the 50-day SMA which might also come in as support.

XAG Curncy GT247 BloombergSource – Bloomberg

Energy

International Crude Oil prices increased to new 2019 highs as Geopolitical tensions mounted from the attack on a Saudi oil facility a week ago. It's reported that the Saudis restored around 75% of the crude production lost in the attack and is running on a tight schedule.

Brent Crude Oil

Monday saw the prices for Brent Crude Oil and WTI Light Crude move lower as German Manufacturing data disappoints leading to lower prices. Oil prices might have some relief as the Saudi production comes back to full capacity, and Hedge funds increase their net long positions.

Technical analysis on Brent Crude Oil (CO1)

  • The price action has moved lower from that record intraday price move higher, which might suggest that the price gap might be filled if we can see a close below the $61.40/ barrel support level.

CO1 Comdty GT247 Bloomberg-2Source – Bloomberg


Disclaimer:

Any opinions, news, research, reports, analyses, prices, or other information contained within this research is provided by Barry Dumas, Market Analyst at GT247 (Pty) Ltd t/a GT247.com (“GT247.com”) as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice for the purposes of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. GT247.com does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability or completeness of any information which we receive from third party data providers. You must rely solely upon your own judgment in all aspects of your trading decisions and all trades are made at your own risk. GT247.com and any of its employees will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on the market commentary. The content contained within is subject to change at any time without notice.

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