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The Commodity Report – 1 March 2019

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Barry Dumas
Saudi-oil-deal-technical-trade-note-OPEC

With the U.S Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release which came in better than Analysts expected showed that the U.S economy did not slowdown as much as what was expected. Commodities like Gold and the other precious metals will be watched closely as Dollar (USD) strength might be the focal point for investors.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the commodities:

Gold

Gold has broken through the trend line support (red line) and did not move higher from my previous level of $1326/ oz back to the recent highs. As seasonality comes to an end for the precious metal we might see the price move lower coupled with Dollar strength coming through.

  • The price is still trading above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (blue line) which might act as support at the $1302/oz level.
  • If the $1302/ oz support level does not hold, we might see the price of Gold move even lower to $1276/ oz.

Screenshot 2019-03-01 at 13.14.22

Source – MetaTrader5

Brent Crude Oil

If the Crude Oil Inventories are anything to go by then it seems that the supply cut is starting to filter through to the market. Crude Oil Inventories came in at -8.647M barrels from the 2.842M barrels expected.

  • Looking at the chart below we can see the price reversed just before my first target price of $64/barrel which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
  • The price actioned reversed and found support once more at the trendline (red dotted) and pushed higher from the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
  • We might see some consolidation above the 38% Fib level before we see the price move once more.
  • Price action is still trading above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (blue solid line) which still supports the move higher.

Screenshot 2019-03-01 at 13.15.19

Source – MetaTrader5

Palladium

The stellar run which Palladium has seen continued to new record highs after our last Commodity Report but might start to face some headwinds as Dollar strength comes through.

  • We might see the price in Palladium move lower to find support at $1505 which was the previous high.
  • I would be bullish on palladium if we see a close above the $1569/ oz level to a target price of $1605/ oz.

 Screenshot 2019-03-01 at 13.16.07

Source – MetaTrader5

 

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