Your Monday Wake Up Call 15 January 2018

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Musa Makoni
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What to look forward to this trading week

The oncoming of the new year brings with it the hope and desire for better outcomes compared to the previous year. 2017 was not an easy year for traders and investors but with a little self-reflection and introspection, it is very well possible for the tide to turn. Narrowing the focus down to this week, there are a few events which traders should be on the lookout for. I have highlighted a few of them below but perhaps the most glaring event over the past week was the weakness of the US Dollar which is setting the tone for most of the movement in currency pairs and some precious metals.

 

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  • Monday will be relatively subdued due to the closure of US markets for Martin Luther King day. With US markets on a hot streak this might be a small breather before the Dow hits 26 000 points, and this is more than likely going to happen this week. We are not expecting any significant economic data either locally or internationally.   

 

  • Early on Tuesday morning Japan is expected to release PPI and Tertiary Industry Activity data which should set the tone for Asian markets. From German we are expecting CPI data whilst locally Mining Production data will come into focus. The United Kingdom is expected to release its CPI data later on that morning and towards the close we expect the USA to release the Empire State Manufacturing Index data. In terms of local earnings we expect Massmart Holdings to release its 4th quarter results.

 

  • Japanese Core Machinery Orders numbers expected on Wednesday, are forecasted to be in the negative for the reported period from a prior recording of 5%. The primary focus however will be on the final recording of CPI for the Eurozone which has implications in the monetary policy decisions of the ECB. From the USA we are expecting Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production numbers, and the forecast for both numbers is that there will be marginal increases. Locally we expect StatsSA to release Retail Sales numbers which should be interesting given the recent festive season. For the CAD currency traders, the Bank of Canada is expected to announce its interest rate decision. With initial forecasts being a 25 basis points increase, this should provide for some interesting volatility in the currency.

 

  • Australia starts off Thursday with the release of its Unemployment Rate numbers. From Japan we expect Industrial Production numbers but the big focus will be on China which is expected to release its GDP, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales numbers. Chinese GDP data is particularly important for emerging market economies like South Africa. Locally, the South African Reserve Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in an announcement that is expected that afternoon. From the USA we are expecting Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims and Housing Starts numbers. After the JSE close we also expect the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers from the USA.

 

  • Friday will be relatively subdued as the only significant set of data expected is from Switzerland with PPI data, and the United Kingdom which is expected to release its Retail Sales numbers. It should be a fairly quiet day thereafter but CAD currency traders can keep an eye out Canadian Manufacturing Sales numbers at 3.30pm.

 

Equity markets should be back to full throttle this week therefore liquidity levels in the market should be vastly improved. The US dollar is still under pressure and US equity markets seem to be steam rolling ahead. On the local front, we are still awaiting Steinhoff International results dating back to 2015 so that we can understand the full extent of the “irregularities”, therefore traders and investors need to remain cautious when trading the stock.

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

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