What to look forward to this week
Last week was characterised by volatility in currencies as global central bank governors converged in Portugal for the ECB forum. The US Dollar continued to weaken relative to major currency pairs as indicated by the US Dollar Index which fell below $96. Nonetheless, a new week is upon us and with it comes new opportunities to profit from the market. Below are a few important things that you can look forward to in this week’s trading.
- Locally, we start off Monday with the release of the Barclays Manufacturing PMI & the Naamsa Vehicle Sales numbers. The last recording of the Naamsa Vehicle Sales year-on-year showed a contraction of -2.6%, which isn’t good news for local car manufacturers. The Manufacturing PMI data will provide much needed insight into the state of the South African manufacturing sector. Given that we are currently in a recession, the outlook for both sets of numbers isn’t particularly great.
- On Wednesday, we are expecting the Standard Bank South Africa PMI numbers and on Thursday the SACCI Business Confidence indicator numbers for June. On Friday, the SARB is expected to publish the gross and net reserves for the country.
- On the international front, it will be short a trading week in the USA because of their independence day on Tuesday. On Monday, we are expecting Manufacturing PMI data from most of the major financial centres in the world. We are also expecting unemployment rate for the Eurozone and out of the USA we can expect Vehicle Sales and Construction Spending data.
- On Tuesday, the Australian Reserve Bank is expected to announce its rate decision which the market expects to remain unchanged. The UK will release its Construction PMI numbers and the Bank of Japan is expected to release its recording of the country’s Core CPI year-on-year. US markets will be closed on Tuesday.
- On Wednesday, focus shifts to Services PMI data from the world’s major financial centres including the USA which will open again on the day. The US is also expected to release its Factory Orders month-on-month data which is forecasted to show a contraction of -0.4%. Later on that evening the Fed will release the FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting.
- Thursday starts the build up to the important US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers expected on Friday. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is usually a precursor to the jobs numbers on Friday is expected to show an addition of 181 000 jobs for the month of June. You can also expect the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories from the USA, as well as the Trade Balance numbers for the month.
- Friday is jobs day! The market will be anticipating the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls for June which are expected to show an addition of 175 000 jobs. This number is the biggest indicator used to gauge the health of the US economy hence the high significance that it has. The Unemployment Rate data will be released simultaneously with the jobs numbers.
- From the UK, the big number to watch will be the Manufacturing Production month-on-month numbers, as well as the Construction Output and Industrial Production numbers.
- It is quite a data filled week and there definitely isn’t a shortage of data to trade on despite the holiday in the US on Tuesday.
We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.
Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!
Musa Makoni | Trading Specialist at GT247.com
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