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Monday Morning Wake up Call 3 December 2018

Musa Makoni



What to look forward to this week

Stocks were relatively upbeat last week as investors anticipated a possible resolution to the current trade spat between the USA and China. That seems to have come to pass as the leaders of the two countries agreed to pause the introduction of new tariffs whilst they look to negotiate further. As of Monday morning, Asian markets are rallying on the back of that meeting and it seems the trend will filter onto other global markets. Locally, this week will be significant as we are expecting the release of GDP data which is forecasted to be better compared to the previous reading. This week is also jobs week, meaning we expect the USA to release the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls numbers. Below I have highlighted other key events and releases to look out for in this week’s trading.


  • Japanese and Chinese Manufacturing PMI numbers came in better than expected early on Monday morning. During the day we are also expecting Manufacturing PMI data from most of the countries in the Eurozone and the USA. From the USA we are also expecting Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Prices and Total Vehicle Sales data. Locally, we are expecting the ABSA Manufacturing PMI and Total Vehicle Sales data.


  • Early on Tuesday morning the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce its interest rate decision which is widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.5%. At 11.30am, the United Kingdom is expected to release its Construction PMI numbers. Locally, the market will be anticipating the release of 3rd quarter GDP data by Statistics SA at 11.30am.


  • China kicks off Wednesday with the release of its Caixin Services PMI data. Most of the countries in Europe including the USA are also expected to release their Services PMI readings. At 3.15pm, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to testify before congress which could result in some swings in the US dollar. At that same time we are also expecting the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data which is considered a precursor to the jobs numbers expected on Friday. At 5pm, we are expecting the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data while at 5.30pm we expect the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers. Locally, we are expecting the Standard Bank PMI number at 9.15am.


  • Retail Sales and Trade Balance data from Australia kick off Thursday for the global markets. Germany is expected to release its Factory Orders data at 9am, while from the USA we are anticipating Trade Balance and Initial Jobless Claims numbers at 3.30pm. At 5pm, the USA is expected to release its Factory Orders data. On the local market, we are expecting the SACCI Business Confidence indicator numbers for the month of November, as well as Current Account data for the 3rd quarter.


  • Friday is jobs day! However before that data release we are expecting Industrial Production numbers from Germany and France at 9am, as well as revised GDP numbers for the Eurozone at 12pm. At 3.30pm, the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls are expected from the USA. At that same time, we are also anticipating Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate data. At 5pm, we are anticipating Wholesale Inventories numbers which should cap off the week for global markets.


We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102 and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

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