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Monday Morning Wake up Call 15 October 2018

Musa Makoni

What to look forward to this week


Global stocks had one of their worst performing weeks in last week’s trading. Tencent Holdings fell sharply in the wake of concerns to its revenue base on the back of increased gaming regulations by Chinese regulators. The stock is down more than 40% year-to-date and this has adversely affected Naspers on the JSE as it has also come under significant pressure. A busy week lies ahead both in terms of economic data and US earnings. Market sentiment is still very much bearish, and this presents a unique situation for traders to effectively implement their risk managements techniques whilst trying to take advantage of the current trend. Below I have highlighted key events that traders can look out for in this week’s trading.


  • Monday gets off to a busy start as the market anticipates US Retail Sales data at 2.30pm that afternoon, which should give insights into US consumer spending. Earlier this morning we had Industrial Production numbers from Japan which only increased by 0.2% MoM compared to the forecasted 0.7%.


  • China will be in focus on Tuesday morning for the release of CPI and PPI data, as well as Foreign Direct Investment numbers. The United Kingdom is expected to release Average Earnings Index and Unemployment Rate data at 10.30am, whilst from the Eurozone we are expecting Trade Balance and Economic Sentiment data at 11am. From the USA, we are expecting Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production and JOLTS Job Openings at 3.15pm. 


  • Inflation numbers for the United Kingdom will be the primary focus for Wednesday morning as we are anticipating their release at 10.30am. We are also expecting CPI numbers for the Eurozone at 11am, and at 2.30pm we are expecting Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the USA. We are also expecting the weekly Crude Oil Inventories numbers at 4.30pm before traders shift their focus to the US Fed for the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes at 8pm. Locally, we are expecting Retail Sales data for the month of August, and initial estimates suggest that YoY Retail Sales will shrink by 0.1%.


  • Early on Thursday morning we are expecting Trade Balance numbers out of Japan and shortly thereafter we expect Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data from Australia. The Bank of Japan governor is expected to make a speech that same morning which could result in some volatility for the Yen. The United Kingdom is expected to release its Retail Sales numbers at 10.30am that morning. From the USA we can expect the weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Locally, we are expecting Mining Production numbers for the month of August at 11.30am.


  • On Friday, emerging markets and commodity producers will be paying close attention to China for the release of Chinese GDP numbers. The current forecast suggests GDP QoY will be recorded at 6.6% from a prior recording of 6.7%. At that same time, we are expecting Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate data. The United Kingdom is expected to release its Public-Sector Net Borrowing data at 10.30am, and later on that afternoon we are expecting Existing Home Sales numbers from the USA which should conclude the trading week.


We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

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