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Monday Morning Wake up Call 01 October 2018

/
Barry Dumas
Your-Monday-Wake-Up-Call

The last week of September ended with a bang as the US and China continued to impose trade tariffs on goods from their respective countries.  Friday saw the last day of the third quarter of 2018 with US equities hitting new all-time highs within this period.  The Federal Reserve increased the FED Funds rate by 0.25% to 2.25% as the FED attempts to keep the US economy in check. On the local front the new mining charter was given the thumbs up by most parties within the sector, however there is still room for debate on some of the salient points of the charter.  The earnings season is still in full swing with banking darling Capitec releasing robust earnings in an environment that has been tough and has left very little wriggle room for banks to make meaningful profits. The Rand appreciated against most of the majors last week as President Ramaphosa reiterated that the local unit was undervalued, the trade surplus numbers that were released later in the week surprised many as they showed that South Africa had exported significantly more than the market hand anticipated.  I have highlighted a few key events below for traders to look out for in this week’s trading.

Find our podcast for your listening pleasure as well as text base reminders for what to look forward to this trading week in our note.

 

  • It was a late Sunday or an early Monday for others as China released their PM numbers.It can be noted that the PMI numbers missed the markets expectation, however the number is still above 50 which is the significant point which shows whether the manufacturing sector is expanding or contracting.  Non-Manufacturing PMI for September was the only number to surprise the market to the upside as it came in at 54.9 vis a vis a forecast of 54. Manufacturing numbers were also release out of Japan on Monday, the PMI number also missed market expectations coming in at 52.5.
  • Europe will also release manufacturing numbers on Monday with a keen eye on the manufacturing outputs of Germany and France. Retail sales are expected out of Germany on Monday with the market anticipating an increase of 1.6% on the YOY number for August. South Africa will release Consumer confidence numbers for the third quarter as well as the ABSA manufacturing PMI numbers for September. Of keen interest at 16:00 CAT are the US ISM manufacturing PMI numbers.
  • On Tuesday morning the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce their interest rates, the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.5%. The US car sales have been robust in previous months as the US economy continues to show signs of advancing.  Look out for car sales on Tuesday evening at 21:30hrs CAT.
  • If the activity on Monday was a bit much, strap your seat belts for the barrage of data on Wednesday. Retail sales numbers are expected across Europe, as Service PMI numbers across the European continent come under the microscope on Wednesday morning. Several FED governors will speak on Wednesday which is customary for them to comment after the FOMC meeting and decision.  Non-Manufacturing numbers are expected from the US on Wednesday afternoon, just after this release watch out for the weekly crude inventory numbers at 16:30hrs CAT.
  • Thursday sees the weekly jobs numbers out of the US being released at 14:30 hrs CAT as well as Factory order out of the US being released at 16:00hrs CAT.
  • The week ends with another onslaught on the data front as South Africa releases its foreign reserves numbers for September at 08:00hrs CAT. Production numbers are expected out of Europe on Thursday and the balance of the retail sales numbers that will be released out of Italy at 10:00hrs CAT. Balance of trade numbers out of Canada will be releases at 14:30 CAT with the north American nation expected to record a trade deficit for the month of August.
  • The highlight of the week without a shadow of doubt is the release of the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number for September. This number has in previous months set the pace for future FED decision on the interest rate front.

 

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!


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