The start to the week sees the tit-for-tat trade disputes between the U.S. and China flare up again as the White House slapped tariffs on roughly $110 billion of Chinese imports on Sunday. Stock markets moved lower as investors moved into safe havens like Gold and Cash, which saw the U.S. Dollar (USD) gain momentum along with precious metals.
One phone call changed all the unrest in the markets as China, and the U.S. agreed to start talks again in Washington as soon as October. This is amidst the two nations realizing that a Global recession is inevitable if the disputes carry on.
We might see a surprise in the number tomorrow if the ADP jobs number is anything to go by, but the Manufacturing PMI numbers disappointed this week which might throw a spanner in the works. The Non-Farm Payrolls will be watched closely this time around and how it will impact the FED's decisions on interest rates for the rest of the year.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) is treated as an economic indicator for people employed during the previous month, and the number being released will have a direct impact on the markets. In the United States, consumer spending accounts for most of the economic activity, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report represents 80% of the U.S. workforce. Farmers are excluded from the employment figures due to the seasonality in farm jobs.
Events leading up to the Jobs report on Friday are:
The U.S. ADP Non-farm Employment Change is an excellent predictor of the Non-Farm Payrolls report as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment.
The U.S. ADP Non-farm Employment Change is released two days ahead of the NFP jobs number. The ADP number was released on Wednesday at 14:15 SAST.
The change in private employment surprised and came in much higher at 195K from the expected forecast number of 148K for August 2019. All eyes will look to the comprehensive Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP), especially wage growth numbers.
Technical Analysis outlook on U.S. Indices for the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The Wall Street 30 has been consolidating over the last month mainly due to the ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and China. The markets rallied today as news broke that the two nations would meet again to start talks in October which might finally put an end to all this madness.
Technical points to look out for on Wall Street 30:
Take note: that the outlook and levels might change as this outlook is released before NFP and before the current days U.S Market open.
There are many ways to trade the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, and here are a few strategies traders look at:
When and what time is the US NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) announced in South Africa?
6th of September 2019 at 14.30 SAST.
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, reports, analyses, prices, or other information contained within this research is provided by Barry Dumas, Market Analyst at GT247 (Pty) Ltd t/a GT247.com (“GT247.com”) as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice for the purposes of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. GT247.com does not warrant the correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability or completeness of any information which we receive from third party data providers. You must rely solely upon your own judgment in all aspects of your trading decisions and all trades are made at your own risk. GT247.com and any of its employees will not accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on the market commentary. The content contained within is subject to change at any time without notice.