GT247.com Trading Blog

Your Monday Wake Up Call 03 July 2017

Written by Musa Makoni | 03 Jul 2017

 

What to look forward to this week

 

Last week was characterised by volatility in currencies as global central bank governors converged in Portugal for the ECB forum. The US Dollar continued to weaken relative to major currency pairs as indicated by the US Dollar Index which fell below $96. Nonetheless, a new week is upon us and with it comes new opportunities to profit from the market. Below are a few important things that you can look forward to in this week’s trading.

 

  • Locally, we start off Monday with the release of the Barclays Manufacturing PMI & the Naamsa Vehicle Sales numbers. The last recording of the Naamsa Vehicle Sales year-on-year showed a contraction of -2.6%, which isn’t good news for local car manufacturers. The Manufacturing PMI data will provide much needed insight into the state of the South African manufacturing sector. Given that we are currently in a recession, the outlook for both sets of numbers isn’t particularly great.

 

  • On Wednesday, we are expecting the Standard Bank South Africa PMI numbers and on Thursday the SACCI Business Confidence indicator numbers for June. On Friday, the SARB is expected to publish the gross and net reserves for the country.

 

  • On the international front, it will be short a trading week in the USA because of their independence day on Tuesday. On Monday, we are expecting Manufacturing PMI data from most of the major financial centres in the world. We are also expecting unemployment rate for the Eurozone and out of the USA we can expect Vehicle Sales and Construction Spending data.

 

  • On Tuesday, the Australian Reserve Bank is expected to announce its rate decision which the market expects to remain unchanged. The UK will release its Construction PMI numbers and the Bank of Japan is expected to release its recording of the country’s Core CPI year-on-year. US markets will be closed on Tuesday.

 

  • On Wednesday, focus shifts to Services PMI data from the world’s major financial centres including the USA which will open again on the day. The US is also expected to release its Factory Orders month-on-month data which is forecasted to show a contraction of -0.4%. Later on that evening the Fed will release the FOMC meeting minutes from their last meeting.

 

  • Thursday starts the build up to the important US Non-Farm Payrolls numbers expected on Friday. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is usually a precursor to the jobs numbers on Friday is expected to show an addition of 181 000 jobs for the month of June. You can also expect the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories from the USA, as well as the Trade Balance numbers for the month.

 

  • Friday is jobs day! The market will be anticipating the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls for June which are expected to show an addition of 175 000 jobs. This number is the biggest indicator used to gauge the health of the US economy hence the high significance that it has. The Unemployment Rate data will be released simultaneously with the jobs numbers.

 

  • From the UK, the big number to watch will be the Manufacturing Production month-on-month numbers, as well as the Construction Output and Industrial Production numbers.

 

  • It is quite a data filled week and there definitely isn’t a shortage of data to trade on despite the holiday in the US on Tuesday.

 

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

 

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

 

Musa Makoni | Trading Specialist at GT247.com

Follow @Makoni_Henry

 
 

Your Economic Calendar for the week:

 

Date Time   Event
07/03/2017 01:45 CH Caixin China PMI Mfg
07/03/2017 07:50 FR Markit France Manufacturing PMI
07/03/2017 07:55 GE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
07/03/2017 08:00 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
07/03/2017 08:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA
07/03/2017 09:00 SA Barclays Manufacturing PMI
07/03/2017 09:00 EC Unemployment Rate
07/03/2017 13:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI
07/03/2017 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing
07/03/2017 14:00 US ISM Prices Paid
07/03/2017 14:00 US ISM New Orders
07/03/2017 14:00 US ISM Employment
07/03/2017 14:00 US Construction Spending MoM
07/03/2017 SA Naamsa Vehicle Sales YoY
07/03/2017 US Wards Total Vehicle Sales
07/03/2017 US Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales
     
     
07/04/2017 08:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
07/04/2017 09:00 EC PPI MoM
07/04/2017 09:00 EC PPI YoY
07/04/2017 11:00 CA MLI Leading Indicator MoM
07/04/2017 13:30 CA Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI
07/04/2017 14:00 CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
07/04/2017 23:01 UK BRC Shop Price Index YoY
     
     
07/05/2017 01:45 CH Caixin China PMI Composite
07/05/2017 01:45 CH Caixin China PMI Services
07/05/2017 07:15 SA Standard Bank South Africa PMI
07/05/2017 07:50 FR Markit France Services PMI
07/05/2017 07:50 FR Markit France Composite PMI
07/05/2017 07:55 GE Markit Germany Services PMI
07/05/2017 07:55 GE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI
07/05/2017 08:00 EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI
07/05/2017 08:00 EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
07/05/2017 08:00 UK New Car Registrations YoY
07/05/2017 08:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
07/05/2017 08:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI
07/05/2017 08:30 UK Official Reserves Changes
07/05/2017 08:30 UK Unit Labor Costs YoY
07/05/2017 09:00 EC Retail Sales MoM
07/05/2017 09:00 EC Retail Sales YoY
07/05/2017 14:00 US Factory Orders
07/05/2017 14:00 US Durable Goods Orders
07/05/2017 14:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans
07/05/2017 14:00 US Durables Ex Transportation
07/05/2017 14:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air
07/05/2017 14:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air
07/05/2017 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
     
     
07/06/2017 06:00 GE Factory Orders MoM
07/06/2017 06:00 GE Factory Orders WDA YoY
07/06/2017 07:30 GE Markit Germany Construction PMI
07/06/2017 08:10 GE Markit Germany Retail PMI
07/06/2017 08:10 EC Markit Eurozone Retail PMI
07/06/2017 08:10 FR Markit France Retail PMI
07/06/2017 09:30 SA SACCI Business Confidence
07/06/2017 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
07/06/2017 11:00 SA Electricity Production YoY
07/06/2017 11:00 SA Electricity Consumption YoY
07/06/2017 11:30 US Challenger Job Cuts YoY
07/06/2017 11:30 EC ECB account of the monetary policy meeting
07/06/2017 12:15 US ADP Employment Change
07/06/2017 12:30 CA Building Permits MoM
07/06/2017 12:30 CA Int'l Merchandise Trade
07/06/2017 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
07/06/2017 12:30 US Continuing Claims
07/06/2017 12:30 US Trade Balance
07/06/2017 13:45 US Markit US Services PMI
07/06/2017 13:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
07/06/2017 13:45 US Markit US Composite PMI
07/06/2017 14:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite
     
     
07/07/2017 06:00 GE Industrial Production SA MoM
07/07/2017 06:00 GE Industrial Production WDA YoY
07/07/2017 06:00 SA Gross Reserves
07/07/2017 06:00 SA Net Reserves
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Trade Balance
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Current Account Balance
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Budget Balance YTD
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Industrial Production MoM
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Industrial Production YoY
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Manufacturing Production MoM
07/07/2017 06:45 FR Manufacturing Production YoY
07/07/2017 07:30 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year
07/07/2017 07:30 UK Halifax House Prices MoM
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Industrial Production MoM
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Industrial Production YoY
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Construction Output SA MoM
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Construction Output SA YoY
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn
07/07/2017 08:30 UK Trade Balance
07/07/2017 12:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate
07/07/2017 12:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
07/07/2017 12:30 CA Net Change in Employment
07/07/2017 12:30 CA Unemployment Rate
07/07/2017 12:30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
07/07/2017 12:30 US Change in Private Payrolls
07/07/2017 12:30 CA Full Time Employment Change
07/07/2017 12:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls
07/07/2017 12:30 CA Part Time Employment Change
07/07/2017 12:30 US Unemployment Rate
07/07/2017 12:30 CA Participation Rate
07/07/2017 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM
07/07/2017 12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY
07/07/2017 12:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees
07/07/2017 12:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate
07/07/2017 12:30 US Underemployment Rate
07/07/2017 14:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA
07/07/2017 CH Foreign Reserves