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Morning Market Scoop 31 January 2019


Morning Market Scoop 31 January 2019

In our morning market scoop:

  • ADP Non-farm Employment Change.


“Counting Down the Days”

What’s the scoop? U.S. ADP Non-farm Employment

The U.S. ADP Non-farm Employment Change is a very good predictor of the Non-Farm Payrolls report being released on Friday. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the monthly change in non-farm, private employment.

  • With the previous months (DEC) release we saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change beat expectations and came in much higher than expected. The market forecast was 179K compared to the actual number of 271K.

The big picture – The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change was released Yesterday two days ahead of NFP at 15:15 SAST. The change in private employment came in better than expected at 213K from the forecast number of 180K for the month of January 2019. The ADP number came in much higher than expected for the second month in a row.  

  • Looking at Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, there is a good chance that we might see a better than expected jobs number coming. Take note the market will react to the data being released on Friday.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) will give an indication as to whether the U.S Economy is in fact slowing down or gaining momentum.

  • In the United States consumer spending accounts for most of the economic activity and the Non-Farm Payrolls report represents 80% of the U.S workforce.

Notable companies reporting earnings are:

  • Amazon, General Electric and Ups

What does all this mean for me?

  • With the additional 213K jobs added in the month of January it gives an indication that the labour market in the US is going strong. All eyes will look to tomorrows comprehensive Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP), especially wage growth numbers.