Morning Market Scoop 15 January 2019
In our morning market scoop:
- The South African Outlook
“Local is Lekker!”
What’s the scoop? South African Outlook
As economic and political uncertainty remains at the order of the day throughout the world, 2019 might be a tough one for emerging markets yet again.
- The World Bank has revised its global outlook lower as trade tension challenges are starting to filter through to a moderately slowing global economy.
The big picture – Keeping it local the World Bank is expecting growth in developing and emerging markets to lose some momentum in 2019 with a 4.2% growth outlook. South Africa’s GDP was projected to grow by 1.8% but was revised lower by the World Bank to 1.3%. The major challenges that we are facing is unemployment which are very high, policy uncertainty as well as mining production challenges.
- South African mining production data will be released later this morning around 11:30 SAST and will be watched by market participants.
SOME FACTORS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
ECONOMIC DATA – all economic data will be under scrutiny in 2019 and closely watched for any indication of growth or economic slowdown. Later this afternoon around 13:00 SAST the South African Retail sales YoY numbers will be released.
- The Retail Sales YoY (Nov) numbers are expected to increase by 2.5%
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM – The World Economic Forum’s 2019 annual meeting in Davos is scheduled for 22-25 January 2019. A team of South African delegates headed by President Ramaphosa will attend Davos to share one common message, South Africa is open for business and offers a stable environment with a highly diversified market.
BUDGET SPEECH – The Minister of Finance will table the 2019 Budget Speech on the 20th of February 2019 at 14:00 SAST.
MINING INDABA – The long-awaited mining indaba takes place from the 4th to the 7th of February which will be hosted by South Africa and is expected to attract over 7000 participants from across the world. The Mining Charter will come under the spotlight at this event as we anticipate opportunities within this sector to be unlocked.
RATING AGENCIES - I am sure the ratings agencies will dish up their fair share of excitement for traders throughout 2019. The latest report released by Moody’s does not call for any ratings action to be taken. Moody’s also released this report which gives some insights to the outlook on Sub Saharan Africa over 2019 titled Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2019 Outlook Negative As Fiscal, External Challenges Persist Despite Easing Pressures
What does all this mean for me?
- Economic data and information is going to be the focal point throughout 2019 as Emerging Markets come under pressure. Not to mention all the promises we as South Africans will receive when the elections come around, make sure you have the facts of what is happening within the economy in 2019.