GT247.com Trading Blog

Your Monday Wake Up Call

Written by Musa Makoni | 26 Jun 2017

 

What to look forward to this week

 

The markets have been choppy of late and locally volatility was at its peak last week as the JSE couldn’t maintain a clear trend. On the global scale the US Dollar is still relatively weaker compared to a basket of major currencies, and this has inversely given direction to safe haven assets such as Gold.

 

  • Locally, we are expecting Non-Farm Payrolls data on Tuesday. The prior recorded numbers reflected marginal increases of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, and 0.9% year-on-year. On Thursday, we are expecting PPI data from StatsSA which is expected to be slightly higher than the previously recorded levels for both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year numbers. The big one is the Trade Balance numbers on Friday which is expected to reflect a surplus of R10.8 Billion, up from R5.1 Billion. If that data comes out as expected, we might see more upside in the Rand relative to major currency pairs.

 

  • On the political front, the big story was the ruling by the Constitutional Court on the application made by UDM for the parliament to have a secret vote on the motion of no confidence against President Jacob Zuma. The ruling was that the speaker of parliament has the powers to declare a secret ballot, therefore the next step is to wait & see if the speaker of parliament will allow for the secret vote to happen.

 

  • On the international front, there is a bit more activity in terms of economic data compared to last week. Today we are expecting Durable Goods Orders data from the USA which should give some insight into US economic activity month-on-month. The last recording was a contraction of 0.5% but the forecast for this month is that it will increase by 0.4%.

 

  • On Tuesday and Wednesday, we are expecting speeches from key central bank governors as governors from the ECB, The US Fed, the Bank of Japan & the Bank of England will be speaking at different times during the course of those 2 days. We are expecting some volatility in the major currency pairs as a result and these scenarios will provide opportunities for profitable trades.

 

  • On Wednesday, we can expect the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories and Pending Home Sales. The Crude Inventories number is of particular interest given the recent weakness in the global oil prices. An early estimate suggests that inventories might record another draw of at 500 000 barrels for last week. Evidence still suggests that there is an oversupply in the global markets and as such any relief in oil prices is not expected to be substantial at this point. Investors will eagerly be waiting for any announcement from OPEC with regards to possible actions that can prop up oil prices.

 

  • On Thursday, the big number is the quarter-on-quarter GDP data from the USA which should give some indication into the performance of one of the world’s biggest economies. The forecast is that GDP will be recorded at 1.2% quarter-on-quarter. The GDP data will come out at the same time as the weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers which is expected to show a decrease in claims to 240 000, from 241 000 last week.

 

  • On Thursday, you can expect CPI data from Spain & Germany and on Friday we also expect CPI data from Japan and the Eurozone. China is expected to release its Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI data which should shed some light into economic activity in the world’s largest economy. 

 

  • German is expected to release its Retail Sales numbers, the United Kingdom its GDP data for the quarter, and from the USA we are expecting the Chicago PMI, Personal Spending and Personal Income data for the month.

 

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

 

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

 

Musa Makoni | Trading Specialist at GT247.com

Follow @Makoni_Henry

 
 

Your Economic Calendar for the week:

 

Date Time   Event Ticker
06/26/2017 05:00 JN Leading Index CI JNCICLEI Index
06/26/2017 05:00 JN Coincident Index JNCICCOI Index
06/26/2017 08:00 GE IFO Business Climate GRIFPBUS Index
06/26/2017 08:00 GE IFO Expectations GRIFPEX Index
06/26/2017 08:00 GE IFO Current Assessment GRIFPCA Index
06/26/2017 08:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase UKMLMNHP Index
06/26/2017 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders DGNOCHNG Index
06/26/2017 12:30 US Durables Ex Transportation DGNOXTCH Index
06/26/2017 12:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air CGNOXAI% Index
06/26/2017 12:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air CGSHXAI% Index
06/26/2017 12:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index CFNAI Index
06/26/2017 14:00 CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence BNCCINDX Index
06/26/2017 14:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity DFEDGBA Index
       
       
06/27/2017 10:00 UK CBI Retailing Reported Sales DTSRR1RB Index
06/27/2017 10:00 UK CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales DTSDD1RB Index
06/27/2017 10:00 SA Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ EESAEMQO Index
06/27/2017 10:00 SA Non-Farm Payrolls YoY EESAEMYO Index
06/27/2017 13:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA SPCS20SM Index
06/27/2017 13:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA SPCS20Y% Index
06/27/2017 13:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index SPCS20 Index
06/27/2017 13:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA SPCSUSAY Index
06/27/2017 13:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index SPCSUSA Index
06/27/2017 14:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence CONCCONF Index
06/27/2017 14:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation CONCPSIT Index
06/27/2017 14:00 US Conf. Board Expectations CONCEXP Index
06/27/2017 14:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index RCHSINDX Index
       
       
06/28/2017 05:00 JN Small Business Confidence JNSBALLI Index
06/28/2017 06:00 GE Import Price Index MoM GRIMP95M Index
06/28/2017 06:00 GE Import Price Index YoY GRIMP95Y Index
06/28/2017 08:00 EC M3 Money Supply YoY ECMAM3YY Index
06/28/2017 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications MBAVCHNG Index
06/28/2017 12:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance USTGTTCB Index
06/28/2017 12:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM MWINCHNG Index
06/28/2017 12:30 US Retail Inventories MoM RSRSTMOM Index
06/28/2017 14:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM USPHTMOM Index
06/28/2017 14:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY USPHTYOY Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Retail Sales MoM JNRETMOM Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Retail Trade YoY JNNETYOY Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales JNRSYOY Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Loans & Discounts Corp YoY JBLDLDCY Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds JSIABOND Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks JSIASTCK Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds JSIHBOND Index
06/28/2017 23:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks JSIHSTCK Index
06/28/2017 07/03 UK Nationwide House PX MoM UKNBAAMM Index
06/28/2017 07/03 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY UKNBANYY Index
       
       
06/29/2017 06:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence ECO1GFKC Index
06/29/2017 07:00 GE CPI Saxony MoM GRCP2SAM Index
06/29/2017 07:00 GE CPI Saxony YoY GRCP2SAY Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Brandenburg MoM GRCP2BRM Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Brandenburg YoY GRCP2BRY Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Hesse MoM GRCP2HEM Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Hesse YoY GRCP2HEY Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Bavaria MoM GRCP2BVM Index
06/29/2017 08:00 GE CPI Bavaria YoY GRCP2BVY Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK Net Consumer Credit UKMSB3PS Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings UKMSVTVJ Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK Mortgage Approvals UKMSVTVX Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK Money Supply M4 MoM UKMSM41M Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply YoY UKMSM41Y Index
06/29/2017 08:30 UK M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised UKMS4QG Index
06/29/2017 08:30 GE CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM GRCP2NRM Index
06/29/2017 08:30 GE CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY GRCP2NRY Index
06/29/2017 09:00 EC Economic Confidence EUESEMU Index
06/29/2017 09:00 EC Business Climate Indicator EUBCI Index
06/29/2017 09:00 EC Industrial Confidence EUICEMU Index
06/29/2017 09:00 EC Services Confidence EUSCEMU Index
06/29/2017 09:00 EC Consumer Confidence EUCCEMU Index
06/29/2017 09:30 SA PPI YoY SAPRFMGY Index
06/29/2017 09:30 SA PPI MoM SAPRFMGM Index
06/29/2017 12:00 GE CPI MoM GRCP20MM Index
06/29/2017 12:00 GE CPI YoY GRCP20YY Index
06/29/2017 12:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM GRCP2HMM Index
06/29/2017 12:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY GRCP2HYY Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ GDP CQOQ Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US Personal Consumption GDPCTOT% Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US GDP Price Index GDP PIQQ Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US Core PCE QoQ GDPCPCEC Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims INJCJC Index
06/29/2017 12:30 US Continuing Claims INJCSP Index
06/29/2017 13:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort COMFCOMF Index
06/29/2017 23:01 UK GfK Consumer Confidence UKCCI Index
06/29/2017 23:01 UK Lloyds Business Barometer LTSBBSBX Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Jobless Rate JNUE Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio JBTARATE Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Overall Household Spending YoY JHHSLERY Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Natl CPI YoY JNCPIYOY Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY JNCPIXFF Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY JCPNEFFE Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY JNCPT Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY JNCPTXFF Index
06/29/2017 23:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy YoY JCPTEFFE Index
06/29/2017 23:50 JN Industrial Production MoM JNIPMOM Index
06/29/2017 23:50 JN Industrial Production YoY JNIPYOY Index
06/29/2017 GE CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM GRCP2BWM Index
06/29/2017 GE CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY GRCP2BWY Index
06/29/2017 CA CFIB Business Barometer CFIBCANA Index
       
       
06/30/2017 04:00 JN Vehicle Production YoY JNVHPYOY Index
06/30/2017 05:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts JNHSAN Index
06/30/2017 05:00 JN Housing Starts YoY JNHSYOY Index
06/30/2017 05:00 JN Construction Orders YoY JNCSTOTY Index
06/30/2017 06:00 GE Retail Sales MoM GRFRIAMM Index
06/30/2017 06:00 GE Retail Sales YoY GRFRINYY Index
06/30/2017 06:00 SA Money Supply M3 YoY SAMYM3Y Index
06/30/2017 06:00 SA Private Sector Credit YoY SACEIYY Index
06/30/2017 07:55 GE Unemployment Change (000's) GRUECHNG Index
06/30/2017 07:55 GE Unemployment Claims Rate SA GRUEPR Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK Current Account Balance UKCA Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK GDP QoQ UKGRABIQ Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK GDP YoY UKGRABIY Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK Index of Services MoM UKISCTMM Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK Index of Services 3M/3M UKISCT3M Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK Total Business Investment QoQ UKBINPEQ Index
06/30/2017 08:30 UK Total Business Investment YoY UKBINPEY Index
06/30/2017 09:00 EC CPI Estimate YoY ECCPEST Index
06/30/2017 09:00 EC CPI Core YoY CPEXEMUY Index
06/30/2017 12:00 SA Trade Balance Rand SATBAL Index
06/30/2017 12:00 SA South Africa Budget SABBBAL Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US Personal Income PITLCHNG Index
06/30/2017 12:30 CA GDP MoM CAGDPMOM Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US Personal Spending PCE CRCH Index
06/30/2017 12:30 CA GDP YoY CAGDPYOY Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US Real Personal Spending PCE CHNC Index
06/30/2017 12:30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM CAIPMOM Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US PCE Deflator MoM PCE DEFM Index
06/30/2017 12:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index MoM CARAMOM Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US PCE Deflator YoY PCE DEFY Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US PCE Core MoM PCE CMOM Index
06/30/2017 12:30 US PCE Core YoY PCE CYOY Index
06/30/2017 13:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager CHPMINDX Index
06/30/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment CONSSENT Index
06/30/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions CONSCURR Index
06/30/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations CONSEXP Index
06/30/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation CONSPXMD Index
06/30/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation CONSP5MD Index
06/30/2017 14:30 CA Business Outlook Future Sales BCBSFUTR Index
06/30/2017 14:30 CA BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey BOCLOVER Index