GT247.com Trading Blog

Your Monday Wake Up Call 17 July 2017

Written by Musa Makoni | 17 Jul 2017

 

What to look forward to this week

 

Last week was fairly good week for the JSE, particularly on Friday where the Rand broke down below R13 to the US Dollar. This was mainly a result of weak US economic data which led to the weakening of the greenback against major currency pairs, as well as the suspension of proposed new mining laws. Thank goodness it is a new week and with it comes new opportunities. We have highlighted some key events that might be of significance this week.

 

  • The week is off to a good start after the release of Chinese economic data which came in better than expected in the early hours of this morning. GDP year-on-year came in at 6.9% on the back of an estimate of 6.8%, Retail Sales year-on-year also beat expectations to come in at 11.0% on the back of an estimate of 10.6%. A number that will inspire commodity producers is the Industrial Production year-on-year number that was recorded at 7.6% on the back of a forecast of 6.5%.

 

  • Locally, the South Africa Reserve Bank is expected to announce its rate decision on Thursday. The expectation is that the repo rate will be kept unchanged at 7.00%. Prior to that rate decision we are expecting CPI & Retail Sales data on Wednesday. CPI year-on-year is expected to decrease to 5.2% from the prior recording of 5.4%. Retail Sales year-on-year is expected to come in at -0.3% after a prior surprise increase of 1.5%.

 

  • On the international front, we are expecting CPI data for the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, New Zealand & Canada during the course of this week. There should be some volatility in the underlying currencies when this data is released therefore currency traders should take note of those releases.

 

  • Wednesday brings the USA into focus with the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts numbers. You can also expect the weekly Crude Oil Inventories number which is expected to show a draw of at least 7.6 million barrels.

 

  • On Thursday, attention shifts to interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. The consensus for both of those decisions is that they will leave rates unchanged. With the recent increase in hawkishness of most major central banks it would not be surprising if one those rate decisions resulted in a rate increase. Investors will also be looking for indications on how soon and aggressive the anticipated tapering will be from both of these banks. From the USA, you can expect the weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

 

  • Besides the CPI numbers from Canada, Friday will be a fairly light day in terms of economic data. The one key element that traders need to keep a look out for is the US Dollar which will detect movements in safe haven assets such as Gold and other key commodities.

 

  • Round 2 of Brexit negotiations begin today, the implications of Brexit have proven to be bad for the UK job sector as most banks have begun the process of moving most of their key staff to other major European cities from London. Expect volatility in the GBP/USD currency pair during the course of these negotiations.

 

We will be keeping tabs on the events in the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

 

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

 

Musa Makoni | Trading Specialist at GT247.com

Follow @Makoni_Henry

 
 

Your Economic Calendar for the week:

 

Date Time   Event
07/17/2017 02:00 CH GDP YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH GDP SA QoQ
07/17/2017 02:00 CH GDP YTD YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH Retail Sales YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH Retail Sales YTD YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH Industrial Production YoY
07/17/2017 02:00 CH Industrial Production YTD YoY
07/17/2017 09:00 EC CPI MoM
07/17/2017 09:00 EC CPI YoY
07/17/2017 09:00 EC CPI Core YoY
07/17/2017 12:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions
07/17/2017 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing
07/17/2017 13:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM
07/17/2017 14:00 CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
07/17/2017 22:45 NZ CPI YoY
07/17/2017 23:30 AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index
     
     
07/18/2017 01:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM
07/18/2017 01:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY
07/18/2017 01:30 CH China June Property Prices
07/18/2017 01:30 AU RBA July Rate Meeting Minutes
07/18/2017 04:00 JN Tokyo Condominium Sales YoY
07/18/2017 08:00 EC ECB Bank Lending Survey
07/18/2017 08:30 UK CPIH YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK CPI MoM
07/18/2017 08:30 UK CPI YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK CPI Core YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK Retail Price Index
07/18/2017 08:30 UK RPI MoM
07/18/2017 08:30 UK RPI YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY)
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Input NSA MoM
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Input NSA YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA MoM
07/18/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA YoY
07/18/2017 08:30 UK House Price Index YoY
07/18/2017 09:00 GE ZEW Survey Current Situation
07/18/2017 09:00 EC ZEW Survey Expectations
07/18/2017 09:00 GE ZEW Survey Expectations
07/18/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index MoM
07/18/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
07/18/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index YoY
07/18/2017 12:30 US Export Price Index MoM
07/18/2017 12:30 US Export Price Index YoY
07/18/2017 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index
07/18/2017 20:00 US Total Net TIC Flows
07/18/2017 20:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows
     
     
07/19/2017 00:30 AU Westpac Leading Index MoM
07/19/2017 06:00 JN Machine Tool Orders YoY
07/19/2017 08:00 SA CPI YoY
07/19/2017 08:00 SA CPI MoM
07/19/2017 08:00 SA CPI Core YoY
07/19/2017 08:00 SA CPI Core MoM
07/19/2017 09:00 EC Construction Output MoM
07/19/2017 09:00 EC Construction Output YoY
07/19/2017 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
07/19/2017 11:00 SA Retail Sales Constant YoY
07/19/2017 11:00 SA Retail Sales MoM
07/19/2017 12:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM
07/19/2017 12:30 US Housing Starts
07/19/2017 12:30 US Housing Starts MoM
07/19/2017 12:30 US Building Permits
07/19/2017 12:30 US Building Permits MoM
07/19/2017 23:50 JN Trade Balance
07/19/2017 23:50 JN Trade Balance Adjusted
07/19/2017 23:50 JN Exports YoY
07/19/2017 23:50 JN Imports YoY
07/19/2017 JN Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July
     
     
07/20/2017 01:30 AU NAB Business Confidence
07/20/2017 01:30 AU Employment Change
07/20/2017 01:30 AU Unemployment Rate
07/20/2017 01:30 AU Full Time Employment Change
07/20/2017 01:30 AU Part Time Employment Change
07/20/2017 01:30 AU Participation Rate
07/20/2017 01:30 AU RBA FX Transactions Government
07/20/2017 01:30 AU RBA FX Transactions Market
07/20/2017 01:30 AU RBA FX Transactions Other
07/20/2017 04:30 JN All Industry Activity Index MoM
07/20/2017 06:00 GE PPI MoM
07/20/2017 06:00 GE PPI YoY
07/20/2017 07:00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY
07/20/2017 08:00 EC ECB Current Account SA
07/20/2017 08:00 EC Current Account NSA
07/20/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM
07/20/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY
07/20/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM
07/20/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY
07/20/2017 09:00 EC Euro Area First Quarter Government Deficit
07/20/2017 09:00 EC Euro Area First Quarter Government Debt
07/20/2017 11:45 EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate
07/20/2017 11:45 EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility
07/20/2017 11:45 EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate
07/20/2017 11:45 EC ECB Asset Purchase Target
07/20/2017 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
07/20/2017 12:30 US Continuing Claims
07/20/2017 12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
07/20/2017 13:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
07/20/2017 13:45 US Bloomberg Economic Expectations
07/20/2017 14:00 EC Consumer Confidence
07/20/2017 14:00 US Leading Index
07/20/2017 23:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds
07/20/2017 23:50 JN Japan Buying Foreign Stocks
07/20/2017 23:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Bonds
07/20/2017 23:50 JN Foreign Buying Japan Stocks
07/20/2017 SA SARB Announce Interest Rate
07/20/2017 CH FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY
07/20/2017 JN BOJ Monetary Policy Statement
07/20/2017 JN BOJ Policy Balance Rate
07/20/2017 JN BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target
     
     
07/21/2017 05:30 JN Nationwide Dept Sales YoY
07/21/2017 05:30 JN Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY
07/21/2017 08:00 EC ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
07/21/2017 08:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR)
07/21/2017 08:30 UK Central Government NCR
07/21/2017 08:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
07/21/2017 08:30 UK PSNB ex Banking Groups
07/21/2017 12:30 CA CPI NSA MoM
07/21/2017 12:30 CA CPI YoY
07/21/2017 12:30 CA Consumer Price Index
07/21/2017 12:30 CA CPI Core- Common YoY%
07/21/2017 12:30 CA CPI Core- Trim YoY%
07/21/2017 12:30 CA CPI Core- Median YoY%
07/21/2017 12:30 CA Retail Sales MoM
07/21/2017 12:30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM