GT247.com Trading Blog

5 things to look out for this trading week

Written by Musa Makoni | 12 Jun 2017

 

What we can look forward to this trading week:

 

Moody’s downgraded South Africa’s local and foreign debt on Friday. This was far from being a surprise, and in fact we are quite pleased that South Africa did not get downgraded by two notches to sub-investment grade. The good news is our local currency seems to be doing well relative to major currency pairs despite that announcement. Moody’s outlook for SA is negative and if we don’t see improvements by December, they might just downgrade us again to sub-investment grade. The UK election managed to produce a surprise which saw the Tories losing their majority in parliament, this puts the Brexit talks scheduled to start in a week in jeopardy.

 

  • Locally, it is a very thin week in terms of economic data releases. We are only expecting Retail Sales data on Wednesday and the impact of this data of late has been quite muted. Our focus will be on the Rand and commodity prices, as we expect that to be the main driver of price action in a week that will be a day short because of the holiday on Friday.

 

  • On the international front, the major event to look out for is the US Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus is that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%. Expect some volatility in major FX pairs such as the EUR/USD, USD/JPY & GBP/USD regardless of the decision that is made on Wednesday. Should they increase rates as expected, we should see some strength in the US Dollar which has been under pressure of late.

 

  • We are also expecting the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan to announce their rate decisions on Thursday & Friday respectively. The outlook for both of those decisions is that they will keep rates unchanged. Investors will be closely watching the Bank of England’s asset purchase policy for indications of how soon the bank will start winding down on the policy.

 

  • Besides the rate decision from the world’s biggest central banks, we are expecting CPI & PPI data from the world’s biggest financial centres during the course of the week. The US is expected to release quite a bit of economic data between Wednesday & Thursday, including the weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Initial Jobless Claims.

 

  • We will be keeping a close watch on events in the UK as Theresa May & her party try to find the way forward after a somewhat embarrassing election result for their party.

 

We will be keeping tabs on the markets. Check out our blog for market updates, insights from our GT247.com team, and our independent analysts. Not sure about a trade? Call the GT247.com Trading Desk on 087 940 6102, and bounce your idea off one of our dedicated traders.

 

Until next week, we wish you profitable trading!

 

Musa Makoni | Trading Specialist at GT247.com

Follow @Makoni_Henry

 
 

Your Economic Calendar for the week:


Date Time   Event
06/12/2017 06:30 FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment
06/12/2017 14:00 CA Bloomberg Nanos Confidence
06/12/2017 18:00 US Monthly Budget Statement
     
     
06/13/2017 05:30 FR Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ
06/13/2017 06:00 GE Wholesale Price Index MoM
06/13/2017 06:00 GE Wholesale Price Index YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK CPIH YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK CPI MoM
06/13/2017 08:30 UK CPI YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK CPI Core YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK Retail Price Index
06/13/2017 08:30 UK RPI MoM
06/13/2017 08:30 UK RPI YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY)
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Input NSA MoM
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Input NSA YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output NSA MoM
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output NSA YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA MoM
06/13/2017 08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA YoY
06/13/2017 08:30 UK House Price Index YoY
06/13/2017 09:00 GE ZEW Survey Current Situation
06/13/2017 09:00 EC ZEW Survey Expectations
06/13/2017 09:00 GE ZEW Survey Expectations
06/13/2017 10:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
06/13/2017 12:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY
     
     
06/14/2017 06:00 GE CPI MoM
06/14/2017 06:00 GE CPI YoY
06/14/2017 06:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized MoM
06/14/2017 06:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized YoY
06/14/2017 08:30 UK Claimant Count Rate
06/14/2017 08:30 UK Jobless Claims Change
06/14/2017 08:30 UK Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY
06/14/2017 08:30 UK Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY
06/14/2017 08:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
06/14/2017 08:30 UK Employment Change 3M/3M
06/14/2017 09:00 EC Industrial Production SA MoM
06/14/2017 09:00 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY
06/14/2017 09:00 EC Employment QoQ
06/14/2017 09:00 EC Employment YoY
06/14/2017 10:00 SA BER Business Confidence
06/14/2017 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
06/14/2017 11:00 SA Retail Sales Constant YoY
06/14/2017 11:00 SA Retail Sales MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HP Index
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI YoY
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI Core Index SA
06/14/2017 12:30 US CPI Index NSA
06/14/2017 12:30 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY
06/14/2017 12:30 US Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY
06/14/2017 12:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
06/14/2017 12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas
06/14/2017 12:30 US Retail Sales Control Group
06/14/2017 14:00 US Business Inventories
06/14/2017 18:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)
06/14/2017 18:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)
     
     
06/15/2017 06:45 FR CPI EU Harmonized MoM
06/15/2017 06:45 FR CPI EU Harmonized YoY
06/15/2017 06:45 FR CPI MoM
06/15/2017 06:45 FR CPI YoY
06/15/2017 06:45 FR CPI Ex-Tobacco Index
06/15/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM
06/15/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY
06/15/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM
06/15/2017 08:30 UK Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel YoY
06/15/2017 09:00 EC Trade Balance SA
06/15/2017 09:00 EC Trade Balance NSA
06/15/2017 11:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate
06/15/2017 11:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target
06/15/2017 11:00 UK BOE Corporate Bond Target
06/15/2017 12:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM
06/15/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index MoM
06/15/2017 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing
06/15/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM
06/15/2017 12:30 US Import Price Index YoY
06/15/2017 12:30 US Export Price Index MoM
06/15/2017 12:30 US Export Price Index YoY
06/15/2017 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
06/15/2017 12:30 US Continuing Claims
06/15/2017 12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
06/15/2017 13:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM
06/15/2017 13:15 US Industrial Production MoM
06/15/2017 13:15 US Capacity Utilization
06/15/2017 13:15 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production
06/15/2017 13:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
06/15/2017 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index
06/15/2017 20:00 US Total Net TIC Flows
06/15/2017 20:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows
     
     
06/16/2017 06:00 EC EU27 New Car Registrations
06/16/2017 06:45 FR Wages QoQ
06/16/2017 09:00 EC Labour Costs YoY
06/16/2017 09:00 EC CPI MoM
06/16/2017 09:00 EC CPI YoY
06/16/2017 09:00 EC CPI Core YoY
06/16/2017 12:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions
06/16/2017 12:30 US Housing Starts
06/16/2017 12:30 US Housing Starts MoM
06/16/2017 12:30 US Building Permits
06/16/2017 12:30 US Building Permits MoM
06/16/2017 14:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index Change
06/16/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment
06/16/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions
06/16/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations
06/16/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation
06/16/2017 14:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation